Saturday, September 20, 2008

National Posts Huge Lead Over Labour in Latest Opinion Poll

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The National party continues to post a huge lead over the ruling Labour Party in the last Fairfax-Nielson poll released on 20 September. It would take a major swing for Labour to win a fourth term in government when voters go to the polls on 8 November.

At 52 percent support, National has a substantial 18 percent lead over Labour. Of the minor parties, only the Greens would pass the 5 percent threshold to win party-list seats in the new parliament; however, the Maori Party, United Future, and ACT are expected to win constituency seats to maintain their presence in the next parliament. Don’t knows constitute 13 percent of voters.

National’s John Key is preferred by 41 percent voters as prime minister to Helen Clark, the current prime minister, at 30 percent. 21 percent of voters don’t know who they prefer.

The poll questioned 1130 people and has a 3 percent margin of error.

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