National, as expected, pulled off a win in yesterday's general election in New Zealand. What was not fully anticipated was the huge swing under an MMP voting system to National and minor party ACT.
Seat tally at end of election night, subject to the possibility National might lose one seat to the Greens when special votes are counted:
National Party............................................59
Labour Party..............................................43
ACT............................................................5
Maori Party.................................................5
Green Party................................................8
United Future..............................................1
Progressive.................................................1
After allowing for the loss of a further seat to the Greens, National could govern with ACT and United support. National, ACT and United would have 64 MPs - two votes over the 62 majority required.
National leader John Key will face a choice between trying to govern with a slim 2 vote majority or to broaden his margin by trying to forge a working relationship with the Maori Party which won 5 seats. This is likely to be problematic given the substantial policy differences between the two parties on Maori issues. How much political expediency may be exercised remains to be seen.
Labour leader Helen Clark announced in her concession speech that she is also resigning as leader of the party. Meantime, Winston Peters, leader of New Zealand First, will be looking for a new job as he lost his electorate seat and the party failed to gain sufficient support to win any list seats.
While this was a landslide in terms of MMP voting, the question remains as to what the result actually means the New Zealand electorate wants: simply a change of management after 8 years or radical, thoroughgoing change?
With the far right of centre ACT Party now likely to be able to leverage considerable power in any coalition with National, some ACT cabinet ministers and some key ACT policies may be expected to be part of the price National will need to pay in order to govern.
But John Key studiously avoided asking the New Zealand voters for a free market, smaller government sweeping mandate. National's policy platform, like Labour's, was a patchwork of ideas with no overarching vision of taking the country in a new direction, let alone declaring how fast & substantial that change should be. In times of deepening economic crisis, this should trouble the nation.
Showing posts with label National. Show all posts
Showing posts with label National. Show all posts
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Labour Steals A March Over National on Emergency Unemployment Policy in Election Campaign
Stealing a march on National which is expected to announce its policy to respond to the effects of the global economic crisis, Labour's leader Helen Clark released details of her party's emergency unemployment benefit today.
The normal waiting period for unemployment benefits will be reduced to 1-2 weeks and means-testing will not be applied to the first 13 weeks of benefit payment. Only those laid off or made redundant would be eligible.
Labour estimates the cost of the transitional assistance package at $50 million, with the funding coming from within existing government revenues.
The normal waiting period for unemployment benefits will be reduced to 1-2 weeks and means-testing will not be applied to the first 13 weeks of benefit payment. Only those laid off or made redundant would be eligible.
Labour estimates the cost of the transitional assistance package at $50 million, with the funding coming from within existing government revenues.
Green Co-Leader Blind Sides Key Taking New Zealand General Election to the Mall
Seeking to confront National leader John Key on his party's apparent backsliding on the Kyoto Protocol to combat global climate change and statements that farmers will be exempt from an emissions trading scheme (ETS) under a National government, Green Party co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons went shopping for Key at a Kapiti Coast mall.
According to Fitzsimons, National MPs in Hawkes Bay have been telling farmers that these positions are part of National's environmental policy.
Key told Fitzsimons that National's policy is to remain committed to the Kyoto Protocol but that National will be reviewing how the ETS affects farmers. Nonetheless, National will be retaining some form of ETS.
Since both leaders of the majority parties have refused to appear on the same campaign platform as minor party leaders, Fitzsimons decided to take matters in her own hands to get to speak with Key directly.
According to Fitzsimons, National MPs in Hawkes Bay have been telling farmers that these positions are part of National's environmental policy.
Key told Fitzsimons that National's policy is to remain committed to the Kyoto Protocol but that National will be reviewing how the ETS affects farmers. Nonetheless, National will be retaining some form of ETS.
Since both leaders of the majority parties have refused to appear on the same campaign platform as minor party leaders, Fitzsimons decided to take matters in her own hands to get to speak with Key directly.
Monday, October 27, 2008
National's Infrastructure Policy in the New Zealand Election
National party leader John Key announced his party's election policy on infrastructure on Monday. More details here.
A National government would spend $8.55 billion on new infrastructure over the next six years, some $3.7 billion more than the Labour's infrastructure policy provides for.
National sees its policy as part of a "stepped up" capital spending plan to act as a counter-cyclical macroeconomic management plan to deal with the forecast decline in economic activity resulting from the global financial crisis.
Key identified several major projects, already announced as part of National's election policy, that would expand New Zealand's infrastructure. Expanding the broadband network will be the single largest project, costing $1.5 billion over six years. Roading and other transport projects, including the Waikato expressway, will total $750 million and additional prison facilities at a cost of $315 million will be constructed. National will also increase the building programme for schools by $500 million over three years.
Further infrastructure projects will be announced later this week.
Infrastructure projects will be funded in part by capital channeled through the 40 percent of contributions in the New Zealand Superannuation Fund being directed to the purchase of NZ-based assets. Key has been reluctant to state whether the deposit guarantee fees payable by the major trading banks, estimated at $100 million, will be used to help finance infrastructure despite speculation that National will do so. Key has said National will not borrow to finance infrastructure.
National pledges to streamline and speed up resource consents required under the Resource Management Act (RMA). A "Priority Consent" will be introduced to streamline resource consents for major infrastructure projects of "critical national importance". While environmental assessment will still be required, consents will be removed to the national level with local councils no longer involved in the priority consent process. A decision on priority consents will be required within 9 months.
Older voters, and students of recent NZ economic history, will recall National's "fast track procedure" that was rammed through in the National Development Act of 1979, an environmental impact assessment being required as a response to appease public resistance to fast tracking projects in the "national interest" that might otherwise be subject to insufficient public oversight.
Although only three projects were fast-tracked before the legislation was repealed by a Labour government in 1986, a National government in 1981 narrowed the basis for environmental assessment and the grounds for judicial review of such reports. Voters might well be best advised to adopt a "once bitten, twice shy" approach to this particular element of National's infrastructure policy.
A National government would spend $8.55 billion on new infrastructure over the next six years, some $3.7 billion more than the Labour's infrastructure policy provides for.
National sees its policy as part of a "stepped up" capital spending plan to act as a counter-cyclical macroeconomic management plan to deal with the forecast decline in economic activity resulting from the global financial crisis.
Key identified several major projects, already announced as part of National's election policy, that would expand New Zealand's infrastructure. Expanding the broadband network will be the single largest project, costing $1.5 billion over six years. Roading and other transport projects, including the Waikato expressway, will total $750 million and additional prison facilities at a cost of $315 million will be constructed. National will also increase the building programme for schools by $500 million over three years.
Further infrastructure projects will be announced later this week.
Infrastructure projects will be funded in part by capital channeled through the 40 percent of contributions in the New Zealand Superannuation Fund being directed to the purchase of NZ-based assets. Key has been reluctant to state whether the deposit guarantee fees payable by the major trading banks, estimated at $100 million, will be used to help finance infrastructure despite speculation that National will do so. Key has said National will not borrow to finance infrastructure.
National pledges to streamline and speed up resource consents required under the Resource Management Act (RMA). A "Priority Consent" will be introduced to streamline resource consents for major infrastructure projects of "critical national importance". While environmental assessment will still be required, consents will be removed to the national level with local councils no longer involved in the priority consent process. A decision on priority consents will be required within 9 months.
Older voters, and students of recent NZ economic history, will recall National's "fast track procedure" that was rammed through in the National Development Act of 1979, an environmental impact assessment being required as a response to appease public resistance to fast tracking projects in the "national interest" that might otherwise be subject to insufficient public oversight.
Although only three projects were fast-tracked before the legislation was repealed by a Labour government in 1986, a National government in 1981 narrowed the basis for environmental assessment and the grounds for judicial review of such reports. Voters might well be best advised to adopt a "once bitten, twice shy" approach to this particular element of National's infrastructure policy.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
What Deserts A Sinking Ship? United Future Opts for National in New Zealand General Election
United Future, or more precisely, its leader, Peter Dunne does.
United Future leader & one-man band, Peter Dunne, has brokered a deal with the National Party to support National in any post-election governance arrangement. Currently serving in the Labour government as Minister of Revenue, Dunne has rejected Labour - with effect after the election, of course.
Applying the Peter Principle - reworked by Mr Dunne as "What's good for Peter, is good for the party and nation" - he has negotiated himself a nice cabinet spot in any National government after the election.
Apparently after three years at the public trough collecting a minister's salary & perks it has dawned on Mr Dunne that Labour is no longer for him or United Future.
While arguing that a Labour-Green coalition allied with the Maori Party would pull government too far left of centre, Mr Dunne is no doubt more worried that such a multi-party coalition would squeeze him out of another run at the trough with the larger minority parties getting ahead in the queue for ministerial spots. And he has said as much, cloaked in the code of United Future having difficulty getting its policies addressed.
United Future is barely posting electoral support at 0.4 percent of the party vote; only Dunne's electorate seat keeps the party represented in parliament.
Even with 1 United Future seat on their side, National may still have a struggle to form a government without the Maori Party as latest polls show the gap between National and Labour coalitions narrowing.
United Future leader & one-man band, Peter Dunne, has brokered a deal with the National Party to support National in any post-election governance arrangement. Currently serving in the Labour government as Minister of Revenue, Dunne has rejected Labour - with effect after the election, of course.
Applying the Peter Principle - reworked by Mr Dunne as "What's good for Peter, is good for the party and nation" - he has negotiated himself a nice cabinet spot in any National government after the election.
Apparently after three years at the public trough collecting a minister's salary & perks it has dawned on Mr Dunne that Labour is no longer for him or United Future.
While arguing that a Labour-Green coalition allied with the Maori Party would pull government too far left of centre, Mr Dunne is no doubt more worried that such a multi-party coalition would squeeze him out of another run at the trough with the larger minority parties getting ahead in the queue for ministerial spots. And he has said as much, cloaked in the code of United Future having difficulty getting its policies addressed.
United Future is barely posting electoral support at 0.4 percent of the party vote; only Dunne's electorate seat keeps the party represented in parliament.
Even with 1 United Future seat on their side, National may still have a struggle to form a government without the Maori Party as latest polls show the gap between National and Labour coalitions narrowing.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
TV3 Poll Shows New Zealand Election Tightening Up
The latest TV3 opinion poll of voter preferences in the New Zealand General Election shows the race tightening up, thanks to the MMP voting system, on who will be able to govern after 8 November.
While Labour's support falls to 37.4 percent with National's remaining unchanged at 45.1 percent, the Greens have surged to 8.8 percent in the poll likely reflecting disaffected center-left voters transferring their party vote from Labour to the Greens.
This transfer of support has not been lost on Labour leader Helen Clark who is exhorting: "My message to Labour supporters is if you want a Labour-led government please vote Labour and give us the strength to negotiate later."
The poll results suggest that the new parliament will have an overhang of 123 seats: 57 for National and 47 for Labour, insufficient for either party to command a majority to govern alone.
National could likely cobble together a coalition of support with ACT (2) and United Future (1), giving a total of 60, but still not enough to govern.
National has ruled out an alliance with Winston Peters' NZ First party, which might only provide 1 additional seat. NZ First support grew to 3.5 percent in the latest poll but not enough to cross the 5 percent threshold for the party vote to ensure list representation in parliament.
Labour, on the other hand, has more "friends", having been careful at least to keep the flap open on the big tent. The Greens have announced this week (see earlier post) that their objectives are more closely aligned to Labour's policies.
The Maori Party co-leader Dr Pita Sharples, responding to Maori voter preferences for a coalition agreement with Labour rather than National, is also leaning in Labour's direction while his co-leader Turiana Turia is keeping the door open to National.
Turia has even been ready to forgive and forget within a day or so the racist comments of National's Immigration spokesman, Lockwood Smith, about Asian and Pasifika workers. Quite what she expects to achieve in terms of significant policy advances for Maori with a National-led government is at this stage largely left unexplained by Ms Turia.
Labour, then, could cobble together a coalition: Labour (47), Progressives (1), Greens (11), totalling 59 seats. Again, insufficient to command a majority in parliament and therefore the power to govern.
Thus, the Maori Party with a likely 6 to 7 seats will hold the balance of power, being the king - or queen - maker in the new parliament, determining who sits on the Treasury benches.
For National, leader John Key is going to have to work hard on damage-control as some of his dinosaur shadow cabinet members make racist comments or insist on drawing attention to road toll schemes that would cost the average citizen as much per week as the National tax cut they would receive.
In the remaining time before the election, Key will also have to start showing a more conciliatory and bridge-building stance towards Maori, something that will be a high wire act - perhaps beyond his abilities or inclination - as steps in this direction will likely alienate many of his core National voters.
For the Maori Party leadership the stakes are high. If they follow their voter support, they will gather under Labour's big tent where they could count on the Greens as allies to exert significant pressure on Labour to improve their performance on Maori issues.
Or Maori Party leadership can get out in front of their base support and align with National. This bears grave risks: National is likely to disappoint on Maori issues and the Maori Party faces a rout in three years time when disaffected voters in the Maori electorates could very well toss out Maori Party MPs in favour of Labour ones, returning to a longer term alliance of Maori electoral support for Labour and setting back the Maori Party cause.
While Labour's support falls to 37.4 percent with National's remaining unchanged at 45.1 percent, the Greens have surged to 8.8 percent in the poll likely reflecting disaffected center-left voters transferring their party vote from Labour to the Greens.
This transfer of support has not been lost on Labour leader Helen Clark who is exhorting: "My message to Labour supporters is if you want a Labour-led government please vote Labour and give us the strength to negotiate later."
The poll results suggest that the new parliament will have an overhang of 123 seats: 57 for National and 47 for Labour, insufficient for either party to command a majority to govern alone.
National could likely cobble together a coalition of support with ACT (2) and United Future (1), giving a total of 60, but still not enough to govern.
National has ruled out an alliance with Winston Peters' NZ First party, which might only provide 1 additional seat. NZ First support grew to 3.5 percent in the latest poll but not enough to cross the 5 percent threshold for the party vote to ensure list representation in parliament.
Labour, on the other hand, has more "friends", having been careful at least to keep the flap open on the big tent. The Greens have announced this week (see earlier post) that their objectives are more closely aligned to Labour's policies.
The Maori Party co-leader Dr Pita Sharples, responding to Maori voter preferences for a coalition agreement with Labour rather than National, is also leaning in Labour's direction while his co-leader Turiana Turia is keeping the door open to National.
Turia has even been ready to forgive and forget within a day or so the racist comments of National's Immigration spokesman, Lockwood Smith, about Asian and Pasifika workers. Quite what she expects to achieve in terms of significant policy advances for Maori with a National-led government is at this stage largely left unexplained by Ms Turia.
Labour, then, could cobble together a coalition: Labour (47), Progressives (1), Greens (11), totalling 59 seats. Again, insufficient to command a majority in parliament and therefore the power to govern.
Thus, the Maori Party with a likely 6 to 7 seats will hold the balance of power, being the king - or queen - maker in the new parliament, determining who sits on the Treasury benches.
For National, leader John Key is going to have to work hard on damage-control as some of his dinosaur shadow cabinet members make racist comments or insist on drawing attention to road toll schemes that would cost the average citizen as much per week as the National tax cut they would receive.
In the remaining time before the election, Key will also have to start showing a more conciliatory and bridge-building stance towards Maori, something that will be a high wire act - perhaps beyond his abilities or inclination - as steps in this direction will likely alienate many of his core National voters.
For the Maori Party leadership the stakes are high. If they follow their voter support, they will gather under Labour's big tent where they could count on the Greens as allies to exert significant pressure on Labour to improve their performance on Maori issues.
Or Maori Party leadership can get out in front of their base support and align with National. This bears grave risks: National is likely to disappoint on Maori issues and the Maori Party faces a rout in three years time when disaffected voters in the Maori electorates could very well toss out Maori Party MPs in favour of Labour ones, returning to a longer term alliance of Maori electoral support for Labour and setting back the Maori Party cause.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Racist Comments Inflame New Zealand Election Campaign
National Party spokesman on Immigration, Lockwood Smith, made the following remarks to the Marlborough Express about Asian and Pasifika immigrant farm workers:
“There are some skills in the vineyard that some people are perhaps better at, for example some of the pruning … some of the Asian workers have been more productive … because their hands are smaller. Some of them [employers] are having to teach them [Pasifika seasonal workers] things like how to use a toilet or shower.”
Smith has been charged with racism by his political opponents and has been required by his leader, John Key, to issue a public apology. The Maori Party, likely to be vital to National to form a voting block to form a majority in the new parliament, has criticised the comments as racist and questioned whether Smith is fit to serve as a Minister of Immigration in a new cabinet.
No doubt Lockwood thinks 5 year olds are suitable orchard workers too since they have small hands compared to adults. Will National be repealing child labour laws if elected? Is horticultural work "women's work" because women generally have smaller hands than men? And what's the fascination with showers and toilets? Surely, employers are not incapable of assisting employees to adapt technologically and culturally? Perhaps they need to adapt too.
The remarks rekindle memories of the Muldoon National government of the 1970s - early 1980s in which a number of Cabinet ministers uttered fatuous, racist comments without much political consequence. Hopefully, New Zealand society has evolved sufficiently since then to no longer tolerate such nonsense.
“There are some skills in the vineyard that some people are perhaps better at, for example some of the pruning … some of the Asian workers have been more productive … because their hands are smaller. Some of them [employers] are having to teach them [Pasifika seasonal workers] things like how to use a toilet or shower.”
Smith has been charged with racism by his political opponents and has been required by his leader, John Key, to issue a public apology. The Maori Party, likely to be vital to National to form a voting block to form a majority in the new parliament, has criticised the comments as racist and questioned whether Smith is fit to serve as a Minister of Immigration in a new cabinet.
No doubt Lockwood thinks 5 year olds are suitable orchard workers too since they have small hands compared to adults. Will National be repealing child labour laws if elected? Is horticultural work "women's work" because women generally have smaller hands than men? And what's the fascination with showers and toilets? Surely, employers are not incapable of assisting employees to adapt technologically and culturally? Perhaps they need to adapt too.
The remarks rekindle memories of the Muldoon National government of the 1970s - early 1980s in which a number of Cabinet ministers uttered fatuous, racist comments without much political consequence. Hopefully, New Zealand society has evolved sufficiently since then to no longer tolerate such nonsense.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Greens Labour to Left in New Zealand Post-Election Coalition Speculation
The Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand, with 6 MPs in the current parliament, has evaluated its options for a coalition agreement with one of the two major political parties, concluding it could work with Labour but not National (Green Party press release and 12 point checklist here).
It has nevertheless concluded that the two major parties are closer to each other in terms of green policies than to The Greens.
The Party assessed Labour and National's policies and public statements against a check list of 12 key Green Policy objectives such as reduced fossil fuel use and emissions, increased public transport investment, cleaning up waterways, protecting endangered species and ecosystems, and building a genuine Treaty partnership with Maori.
While neither of the main parties has substantially advanced Green policies, the Greens found that Labour's initiatives to eventually price carbon emissions through the Emissions Trading System, to fund new rail investment, the 40 percent increase in funding for the Department of Conservation since 2005, the increase in the minimum wage, the introduction of Working for Families assistance to low-income families, cumulatively weighed in Labour's favour for Green support.
The Greens concluded, however, that in the area of building a genuine partnership with Maori, Labour's performance is mediocre. Only National's worse performance, eg its declared policy of abolishing the Maori seats by 2014, saves the day for Labour.
While the Greens found some examples of National policy in accord with their own, eg. requiring the New Zealand Superannuation Fund to invest more in New Zealand, Green co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons said that too many of National's policies "headed off down a dead end street. This means that we cannot form a government with National, or support them on confidence and supply, although we could work with them in areas where we have common ground."
Labour leader & PM, Helen Clark, will see a glimmer of hope in the Greens' position. If Labour can close the gap on National then there may be a chance of Labour forming a Labour-Green coalition something that did not result after the 2005 election.
The Greens are the only one of the smaller parties that consistently poll over 5 percent of the party vote in the MMP system required to secure party list seats in parliament. Recent polls show their support at 7 - 9 percent of party support among voters indicating the Greens are likely to retain their 6 seats and possibly gain more.
It has nevertheless concluded that the two major parties are closer to each other in terms of green policies than to The Greens.
The Party assessed Labour and National's policies and public statements against a check list of 12 key Green Policy objectives such as reduced fossil fuel use and emissions, increased public transport investment, cleaning up waterways, protecting endangered species and ecosystems, and building a genuine Treaty partnership with Maori.
While neither of the main parties has substantially advanced Green policies, the Greens found that Labour's initiatives to eventually price carbon emissions through the Emissions Trading System, to fund new rail investment, the 40 percent increase in funding for the Department of Conservation since 2005, the increase in the minimum wage, the introduction of Working for Families assistance to low-income families, cumulatively weighed in Labour's favour for Green support.
The Greens concluded, however, that in the area of building a genuine partnership with Maori, Labour's performance is mediocre. Only National's worse performance, eg its declared policy of abolishing the Maori seats by 2014, saves the day for Labour.
While the Greens found some examples of National policy in accord with their own, eg. requiring the New Zealand Superannuation Fund to invest more in New Zealand, Green co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons said that too many of National's policies "headed off down a dead end street. This means that we cannot form a government with National, or support them on confidence and supply, although we could work with them in areas where we have common ground."
Labour leader & PM, Helen Clark, will see a glimmer of hope in the Greens' position. If Labour can close the gap on National then there may be a chance of Labour forming a Labour-Green coalition something that did not result after the 2005 election.
The Greens are the only one of the smaller parties that consistently poll over 5 percent of the party vote in the MMP system required to secure party list seats in parliament. Recent polls show their support at 7 - 9 percent of party support among voters indicating the Greens are likely to retain their 6 seats and possibly gain more.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Law and Order the Key - National Plans Police Increase as Part of Election Policy
On the campaign trail in Auckland, National Party leader John Key announced his party's plan to increase police numbers by 600 by the end of 2011, with 300 to be allocated to high crime rate South Auckland and the other 300 to the rest of New Zealand.
Key criticised the Labour government for only adding 210 front-line officers since 2005 despite an agreement with NZ First to add 1000 front-line officers by mid 2009.
Official police statistics show that since the 2005 general election, the New Zealand Police have recruited 1250 officers of which more 500 are classified as front-line: 210 are assigned general duties, but a further 193 are assigned to fighting organized crime, and 133 others are assigned to traffic policing duties. A police spokesman suggests that some of the 273 community-policing officers could also be regarded as front-line officers.
The New Zealand Police are a national police force organized in 12 decentralized districts. While the force generally remains unarmed, batons may be carried while firearms are carried in limited circumstances by some officers assigned to particular squads or duties and may be carried in some police vehicles. Recently, tasers have been trialed by the New Zealand police and wider adoption of tasers by the police is likely.
Key criticised the Labour government for only adding 210 front-line officers since 2005 despite an agreement with NZ First to add 1000 front-line officers by mid 2009.
Official police statistics show that since the 2005 general election, the New Zealand Police have recruited 1250 officers of which more 500 are classified as front-line: 210 are assigned general duties, but a further 193 are assigned to fighting organized crime, and 133 others are assigned to traffic policing duties. A police spokesman suggests that some of the 273 community-policing officers could also be regarded as front-line officers.
The New Zealand Police are a national police force organized in 12 decentralized districts. While the force generally remains unarmed, batons may be carried while firearms are carried in limited circumstances by some officers assigned to particular squads or duties and may be carried in some police vehicles. Recently, tasers have been trialed by the New Zealand police and wider adoption of tasers by the police is likely.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Turia Reiterates Maori Party Happy to Deal with National
Turiana Turia, co-leader of the Maori Party, has re-iterated that her party is happy to work with the National Party to form a coalition government following the General Election in New Zealand on 8 November.
She made the comment following opinion poll results in Maori electorates that reinforced earlier polling that Maori voters are pressing the Maori Party to strike a deal with Labour rather than National after the election should either of the major parties fail to gain a majority in parliament.
Marae Digipolls surveys show the Maori Party holding on to its 4 Maori seats, having a good shot at winning the other three seats from Labour, and taking more of the party vote than Labour among Maori voters, a significant loss for Labour.
The Maori Party risks winning some short term tactical gains in a deal with National that could backfire among the Maori electorate if during the next government's term of office little is done to achieve Maori goals. A 70 plus year National history of lacklustre and negative policy towards Maori is playing on the minds of the Maori electorate that realizes, despite some significant setbacks such as the Foreshore and Seabed legislation in the last few years with Labour governments, the greatest gains have occurred for Maori under Labour administrations.
Striking a pact with the current National Party that has announced policies of rapidly winding-up Treaty of Waitangi settlement claims and abolishing the Maori parliamentary seats by 2014 is likely to appear to many Maori voters to be striking a deal with the devil.
The risk for the Maori Party is that it might have some short term three year gains but alienate itself from the Maori electorate and watch its electoral support whither away allowing other parties to reclaim Maori support.
She made the comment following opinion poll results in Maori electorates that reinforced earlier polling that Maori voters are pressing the Maori Party to strike a deal with Labour rather than National after the election should either of the major parties fail to gain a majority in parliament.
Marae Digipolls surveys show the Maori Party holding on to its 4 Maori seats, having a good shot at winning the other three seats from Labour, and taking more of the party vote than Labour among Maori voters, a significant loss for Labour.
The Maori Party risks winning some short term tactical gains in a deal with National that could backfire among the Maori electorate if during the next government's term of office little is done to achieve Maori goals. A 70 plus year National history of lacklustre and negative policy towards Maori is playing on the minds of the Maori electorate that realizes, despite some significant setbacks such as the Foreshore and Seabed legislation in the last few years with Labour governments, the greatest gains have occurred for Maori under Labour administrations.
Striking a pact with the current National Party that has announced policies of rapidly winding-up Treaty of Waitangi settlement claims and abolishing the Maori parliamentary seats by 2014 is likely to appear to many Maori voters to be striking a deal with the devil.
The risk for the Maori Party is that it might have some short term three year gains but alienate itself from the Maori electorate and watch its electoral support whither away allowing other parties to reclaim Maori support.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
National Comes Out of Closet - We're All Socialists Now
Some of us remember the 1975 New Zealand General Election campaign featuring an animated National Party TV ad of "Dancing Cossacks" suggesting the then Labour Government's New Zealand Superannuation Fund's purchases of stocks of NZ companies was creeping socialism that would result in a state-controlled economy. National won the election.
So, imagine the surprise of those whose memory is still functional, when National leader John Key announced yesterday that if elected National will require the current New Zealand Superannuation Fund to invest 40 percent of its assets within New Zealand.
After 33 years, National has come out. It has declared its socialist ways.
The late Rob Muldoon, chief attack dog for National in 1975, later Prime Minister, and state capitalist, must be spinning in his grave.
So, imagine the surprise of those whose memory is still functional, when National leader John Key announced yesterday that if elected National will require the current New Zealand Superannuation Fund to invest 40 percent of its assets within New Zealand.
After 33 years, National has come out. It has declared its socialist ways.
The late Rob Muldoon, chief attack dog for National in 1975, later Prime Minister, and state capitalist, must be spinning in his grave.
Maori Party Claims National Leader Key Promised Not to Abolish Maori Seats
Dr Pita Sharples, Maori Party co-leader, says that National Party leader, John Key, gave assurances to the Maori Party in a meeting between the parties that National would not abolish the Maori electorate seats without Maori agreement. Harry Walker, Sharples' chief of staff, recalls Mr Key saying that National would put the issue on the back burner.
Mr Key & his deputy leader, Bill English, have denied making such an assurance and that no agreements will be made with other parties before the election. National's declared policy on the seats is that the seats would be abolished around 2014 because all outstanding Treaty of Waitangi claims should be settled by then.
Labour leader & PM Helen Clark has weighed in to the controversy saying she believed Sharples' claim: "I believe Pita Sharples. I have not always agreed with him as you know but I believe he is an honest man".
By making public the alleged assurance, the Maori Party may be trying to manoeuvre National into a corner on the Maori seats while trying to appease supporters in the Maori electorates that have been telling the Maori Party to seek a post-election coalition agreement with Labour rather than National because of National's policy to abolish the seats.
Mr Key & his deputy leader, Bill English, have denied making such an assurance and that no agreements will be made with other parties before the election. National's declared policy on the seats is that the seats would be abolished around 2014 because all outstanding Treaty of Waitangi claims should be settled by then.
Labour leader & PM Helen Clark has weighed in to the controversy saying she believed Sharples' claim: "I believe Pita Sharples. I have not always agreed with him as you know but I believe he is an honest man".
By making public the alleged assurance, the Maori Party may be trying to manoeuvre National into a corner on the Maori seats while trying to appease supporters in the Maori electorates that have been telling the Maori Party to seek a post-election coalition agreement with Labour rather than National because of National's policy to abolish the seats.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
New Zealand General Election Leaders TV Debate
The Labour and National party leaders, PM Helen Clark and John Key, sparred in the first leaders debate of the New Zealand General Election campaign.
The two main party leaders colluded to exclude minor party leaders from the debates, so you'll have to find their views elsewhere. Committed to democratic participation, we'll do our best to provide some coverage here.
Watch the debate on YouTube here.
A segment on the economy below:
The two main party leaders colluded to exclude minor party leaders from the debates, so you'll have to find their views elsewhere. Committed to democratic participation, we'll do our best to provide some coverage here.
Watch the debate on YouTube here.
A segment on the economy below:
Sunday, October 12, 2008
New Zealand To Introduce Shonky Deposit Insurance
PM Helen Clark has announced the Labour government will now introduce a deposit insurance scheme that will provide coverage for the next two years. Fees for the insurance will be assessed for institutions with $5 billion or more in total retail deposits.
Update: read details released by the Reserve Bank of the "opt-in" deposit insurance scheme here.
Deposits in banks and non-banks such as building societies, credit unions, and finance companies will be covered, but each institution must choose to join.
The voluntary nature of financial institution participation underscores New Zealand misunderstandings of the policy objective of deposit insurance: it is designed to protect the financial system from systemic failure - a run on the banks; it is not designed to protect individual institutions from illiquidity, however much individual depositors may focus on that.
Permitting individual institutions to opt out of deposit insurance coverage is to turn your policy charged with ensuring financial system stability into a very leaky boat.
The major trading banks will very quickly get the message. To fail to join the deposit insurance system will tag their deposits as unsafe and uneasy depositors will start moving funds to insured accounts. Poor policy design, however, will create unnecessary and possibly costly uncertainty at the onset of the scheme. The "loan sharks", however, will be left to prey on unsuspecting depositors.
Thus, deposit insurance is a condition of obtaining a banking licence, not an option. Moreover, with deposit insurance - a socialisation of bank liabilities as the government through the insurance fund guarantees to back bank liabilities - must come tighter asset standards to be supervised by regulatory authorities, otherwise bankers or at least the shadier kind of financier has the incentive to take the depositor's money and run - into more speculative lending practices.
Let's hope someone at the Reserve Bank and the Treasury gets the picture on this and is persuasive enough to turn the policy around on this point.
Update: It appears that the policymakers were either in agreement with the politicians or were overridden because the Reserve Bank has announced the details of the voluntary system that is euphemistically being called "opt-in" insurance.
The National Party, in opposition but leading in the polls, was not consulted on the insurance proposal, according to leader John Key. But Key and National Finance spokesperson, Bill English, have welcomed the proposal. They do, however, expect a bi-partisan process to be followed in designing and adopting the scheme. English will be briefed by the Reserve Bank on Monday.
Given the critical importance of deposit insurance to maintaining the nation's confidence, and that of internatonal lenders, in New Zealand's financial system that is a reasonable and proper course for both political and economic reasons.
Blog comment: this blog pointed out the absence of deposit insurance in New Zealand and the vulnerability of New Zealand's financial system back in July soon after the blog's creation. In recent weeks we've called for deposit insurance to be introduced. Global events have made such a scheme inevitable. It is unfortunate that the insurance system is only a voluntary one. As argued above, carrying deposit insurance should be seen as a duty or obligation of obtaining a banking licence in order to promote the public interest in a sound and stable banking system.
Stay tuned...
Update: read details released by the Reserve Bank of the "opt-in" deposit insurance scheme here.
Deposits in banks and non-banks such as building societies, credit unions, and finance companies will be covered, but each institution must choose to join.
The voluntary nature of financial institution participation underscores New Zealand misunderstandings of the policy objective of deposit insurance: it is designed to protect the financial system from systemic failure - a run on the banks; it is not designed to protect individual institutions from illiquidity, however much individual depositors may focus on that.
Permitting individual institutions to opt out of deposit insurance coverage is to turn your policy charged with ensuring financial system stability into a very leaky boat.
The major trading banks will very quickly get the message. To fail to join the deposit insurance system will tag their deposits as unsafe and uneasy depositors will start moving funds to insured accounts. Poor policy design, however, will create unnecessary and possibly costly uncertainty at the onset of the scheme. The "loan sharks", however, will be left to prey on unsuspecting depositors.
Thus, deposit insurance is a condition of obtaining a banking licence, not an option. Moreover, with deposit insurance - a socialisation of bank liabilities as the government through the insurance fund guarantees to back bank liabilities - must come tighter asset standards to be supervised by regulatory authorities, otherwise bankers or at least the shadier kind of financier has the incentive to take the depositor's money and run - into more speculative lending practices.
Let's hope someone at the Reserve Bank and the Treasury gets the picture on this and is persuasive enough to turn the policy around on this point.
Update: It appears that the policymakers were either in agreement with the politicians or were overridden because the Reserve Bank has announced the details of the voluntary system that is euphemistically being called "opt-in" insurance.
The National Party, in opposition but leading in the polls, was not consulted on the insurance proposal, according to leader John Key. But Key and National Finance spokesperson, Bill English, have welcomed the proposal. They do, however, expect a bi-partisan process to be followed in designing and adopting the scheme. English will be briefed by the Reserve Bank on Monday.
Given the critical importance of deposit insurance to maintaining the nation's confidence, and that of internatonal lenders, in New Zealand's financial system that is a reasonable and proper course for both political and economic reasons.
Blog comment: this blog pointed out the absence of deposit insurance in New Zealand and the vulnerability of New Zealand's financial system back in July soon after the blog's creation. In recent weeks we've called for deposit insurance to be introduced. Global events have made such a scheme inevitable. It is unfortunate that the insurance system is only a voluntary one. As argued above, carrying deposit insurance should be seen as a duty or obligation of obtaining a banking licence in order to promote the public interest in a sound and stable banking system.
Stay tuned...
Friday, October 10, 2008
Political Poll Stunner
The latest New Zealand Morgan Poll of potential voters shows Labour (37.5 percent) closing the gap on National (40.5 percent) to within 3 percent compared to a gap of 11 percent a fortnight ago.
The results appear to contradict other recent polls in the last fortnight that suggest National leads by 16-19 percent. Other poll results will be needed in order to determine whether the gap has really narrowed.
In earlier polling in September, greatest support for National in the three main centres was in Auckland (47.5 percent), followed closely by Christchurch (46) and then Wellington (43). Labour drew greatest urban support in Christchurch (38.5) , followed by Wellington (36.5) , with Auckland (32.5), by far the largest urban centre, trailing far behind.
In terms of support for minor parties, crucial to either of the main parties prospects for forming a government after the General Election, the Morgan poll has the Green Party at 9 percent, up 2.5 percent; New Zealand First down one on 4 percent; ACT up 2 to 3.5 pecent; the Maori Party at 2 percent; and United Future at 1 percent.
On these poll results, Labour might have the best prospect for forming a government after the election. With 48 seats, Labour might be able to broker a deal with the Greens' 11 seats and Maori Party's 6 seats in a 123 seat parliament. Or it could rely on support from the Progressives and United Future.
To form a government National would need, at a mininum, support of the ACT party and the Maori party.
Pollster Gary Morgan, in unusual editorial comment for a pollster unsupported by polling data, maintains that "there are increasing doubts about National Party leader John Key’s readiness for the highest office in the land", not only in terms of Key's failure to make complete personal finance disclosures but also his ability to handle the financial crisis besetting New Zealand and the world. Key also hurt his chances, according to Morgan, because of his refusal in collaboration with PM Helen Clark not to participate in a televised leaders debate. Full commentary here.
PM and Labour Leader, Helen Clark opens Labour's election campaign in Auckland on Sunday.
The results appear to contradict other recent polls in the last fortnight that suggest National leads by 16-19 percent. Other poll results will be needed in order to determine whether the gap has really narrowed.
In earlier polling in September, greatest support for National in the three main centres was in Auckland (47.5 percent), followed closely by Christchurch (46) and then Wellington (43). Labour drew greatest urban support in Christchurch (38.5) , followed by Wellington (36.5) , with Auckland (32.5), by far the largest urban centre, trailing far behind.
In terms of support for minor parties, crucial to either of the main parties prospects for forming a government after the General Election, the Morgan poll has the Green Party at 9 percent, up 2.5 percent; New Zealand First down one on 4 percent; ACT up 2 to 3.5 pecent; the Maori Party at 2 percent; and United Future at 1 percent.
On these poll results, Labour might have the best prospect for forming a government after the election. With 48 seats, Labour might be able to broker a deal with the Greens' 11 seats and Maori Party's 6 seats in a 123 seat parliament. Or it could rely on support from the Progressives and United Future.
To form a government National would need, at a mininum, support of the ACT party and the Maori party.
Pollster Gary Morgan, in unusual editorial comment for a pollster unsupported by polling data, maintains that "there are increasing doubts about National Party leader John Key’s readiness for the highest office in the land", not only in terms of Key's failure to make complete personal finance disclosures but also his ability to handle the financial crisis besetting New Zealand and the world. Key also hurt his chances, according to Morgan, because of his refusal in collaboration with PM Helen Clark not to participate in a televised leaders debate. Full commentary here.
PM and Labour Leader, Helen Clark opens Labour's election campaign in Auckland on Sunday.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
National Maintains Wide Margin Over Labour in Election Race
With just under 5 weeks till the General Election on Saturday, 8 November, the National Party continues to lead Labour, the governing party, by 19 points.
TV One's latest Colmar-Brunton poll shows National support at 52 percent, with Labour support easing off 1 percent to 33 percent.
Among the minor parties, only the Greens garner sufficient support, gaining 2 points to reach 7 percent, to cross the 5 percent party list threshold to give them representation in the new parliament without having to win electorate seats.
The Maori party posted a small gain from 1.8 to 2.5 percent but their support in Maori electorates is likely to ensure re-election in a number of seats they already hold.
In the past week or so, Maori Party MPs have been making public statements that suggest the Maori Party will consider a coalition arrangement with National, provided the Maori Party is represented within the Cabinet.
TV One's latest Colmar-Brunton poll shows National support at 52 percent, with Labour support easing off 1 percent to 33 percent.
Among the minor parties, only the Greens garner sufficient support, gaining 2 points to reach 7 percent, to cross the 5 percent party list threshold to give them representation in the new parliament without having to win electorate seats.
The Maori party posted a small gain from 1.8 to 2.5 percent but their support in Maori electorates is likely to ensure re-election in a number of seats they already hold.
In the past week or so, Maori Party MPs have been making public statements that suggest the Maori Party will consider a coalition arrangement with National, provided the Maori Party is represented within the Cabinet.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
National Posts Huge Lead Over Labour in Latest Opinion Poll
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The National party continues to post a huge lead over the ruling Labour Party in the last Fairfax-Nielson poll released on 20 September. It would take a major swing for Labour to win a fourth term in government when voters go to the polls on 8 November.
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