Political opinion polls released at the end of this week show varying results creating difficulties for interpreting post-election outcomes.
Results of the various polls can be seen here, though the latest Morgan poll data doesn't seem to have been added yet (at time of this posting).
Following on from a TV3 poll that showed National gaining 59 seats, short of a majority in the next parliament, requiring National to gain the Maori Party's support to govern, came a NZ Herald Digipoll and a Morgan poll.
The Herald poll showed National dropping a percent to 50.4 percent of voter support, but still sufficient for National to govern alone. Labour support was recorded by the pollsters as up 1.3 percent to 37 percent with the Greens at 5.5 percent support.
The Morgan poll shows National with an 11 percent lead over Labour: National, 43 percent - up 2.5 points, with Labour dropping5.5 points to 32 percent.
Despite the 11 point gap, the Morgan poll suggests that the gap between a National coalition or grouping and a Labour-led one was much narrower thanks to a surge of support for the Greens rising to 11.5 percent as Labour supporters seemed to abandon Labour for the Greens.
Thus, a National plus ACT grouping would have 46.5 percent support with 43.5 percent for Labour and the Greens, a gap of only 3 percent.
On these polls, it's going to be a close finish with the Maori Party likely to be the pivotal factor in determining which of the two major parties will form a new government - or maybe not!
Showing posts with label Political poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Political poll. Show all posts
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Friday, October 17, 2008
Latest Fairfax-Nielsen Poll - National Leads Labour by Wide Margin
The latest Fairfax - Nielsen political opinion poll suggests that Labour has not made a dent in National's large lead in voter support. National dropped a percent to 51 percent, Labour also dropping 1 to 33 percent. The Greens, the only other party to cross the 5 percent threshold for seats on the party list, jumped 2 to 7 percent.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Political Poll Stunner
The latest New Zealand Morgan Poll of potential voters shows Labour (37.5 percent) closing the gap on National (40.5 percent) to within 3 percent compared to a gap of 11 percent a fortnight ago.
The results appear to contradict other recent polls in the last fortnight that suggest National leads by 16-19 percent. Other poll results will be needed in order to determine whether the gap has really narrowed.
In earlier polling in September, greatest support for National in the three main centres was in Auckland (47.5 percent), followed closely by Christchurch (46) and then Wellington (43). Labour drew greatest urban support in Christchurch (38.5) , followed by Wellington (36.5) , with Auckland (32.5), by far the largest urban centre, trailing far behind.
In terms of support for minor parties, crucial to either of the main parties prospects for forming a government after the General Election, the Morgan poll has the Green Party at 9 percent, up 2.5 percent; New Zealand First down one on 4 percent; ACT up 2 to 3.5 pecent; the Maori Party at 2 percent; and United Future at 1 percent.
On these poll results, Labour might have the best prospect for forming a government after the election. With 48 seats, Labour might be able to broker a deal with the Greens' 11 seats and Maori Party's 6 seats in a 123 seat parliament. Or it could rely on support from the Progressives and United Future.
To form a government National would need, at a mininum, support of the ACT party and the Maori party.
Pollster Gary Morgan, in unusual editorial comment for a pollster unsupported by polling data, maintains that "there are increasing doubts about National Party leader John Key’s readiness for the highest office in the land", not only in terms of Key's failure to make complete personal finance disclosures but also his ability to handle the financial crisis besetting New Zealand and the world. Key also hurt his chances, according to Morgan, because of his refusal in collaboration with PM Helen Clark not to participate in a televised leaders debate. Full commentary here.
PM and Labour Leader, Helen Clark opens Labour's election campaign in Auckland on Sunday.
The results appear to contradict other recent polls in the last fortnight that suggest National leads by 16-19 percent. Other poll results will be needed in order to determine whether the gap has really narrowed.
In earlier polling in September, greatest support for National in the three main centres was in Auckland (47.5 percent), followed closely by Christchurch (46) and then Wellington (43). Labour drew greatest urban support in Christchurch (38.5) , followed by Wellington (36.5) , with Auckland (32.5), by far the largest urban centre, trailing far behind.
In terms of support for minor parties, crucial to either of the main parties prospects for forming a government after the General Election, the Morgan poll has the Green Party at 9 percent, up 2.5 percent; New Zealand First down one on 4 percent; ACT up 2 to 3.5 pecent; the Maori Party at 2 percent; and United Future at 1 percent.
On these poll results, Labour might have the best prospect for forming a government after the election. With 48 seats, Labour might be able to broker a deal with the Greens' 11 seats and Maori Party's 6 seats in a 123 seat parliament. Or it could rely on support from the Progressives and United Future.
To form a government National would need, at a mininum, support of the ACT party and the Maori party.
Pollster Gary Morgan, in unusual editorial comment for a pollster unsupported by polling data, maintains that "there are increasing doubts about National Party leader John Key’s readiness for the highest office in the land", not only in terms of Key's failure to make complete personal finance disclosures but also his ability to handle the financial crisis besetting New Zealand and the world. Key also hurt his chances, according to Morgan, because of his refusal in collaboration with PM Helen Clark not to participate in a televised leaders debate. Full commentary here.
PM and Labour Leader, Helen Clark opens Labour's election campaign in Auckland on Sunday.
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