New Zealand Treasury Sees Hard Times on Eve of Election

The New Zealand Treasury sees hard times ahead in its November Economic and Fiscal Update of 7 November 2008, produced on the eve of the election.

The release of the document by outgoing Minister of Finance Michael Cullen of the Labour Government apparently caused consternation at No. 1 The Terrace because it was labeled "In Confidence" and was not intended for release.

National finance minister-designate Bill English has publicly complained Cullen has breached constitutional convention by failing to obtain the incoming government's approval to release sensitive information.

Cullen, seeking to make some political hay while he still has his hands on sensitive material, claimed that the paper shows the incoming National government is misleading the public into thinking that the Treasury briefing to National gave a rosier picture.

The released document, which looks like a cut & paste by a substance-abusing economist, downgrades the Treasury's earlier GDP forecasts against a backdrop of weakening international demand and a slowing domestic economy.

If anything, updated global forecasts by both the OECD and the IMF in the last 24 hours indicate that the Treasury's forecasts will need to be adjusted downwards yet again.

The Treasury predicts GDP growth in NZ's top 20 trading partners will grow by 1.8 percent in calendar year 2009 but the OECD is projecting a GDP growth rate for the OECD area of -0.3 percent.

Year................Treasury........OECD (OECD Area)

2008....................2.8.........................1.4

2009....................1.8.......................-0.3

2010....................3.0.........................1.5

The Treasury is now forecasting that the New Zealand economy will contract by -0.5 percent in March year ending 2009, growing only by 1.4 percent in 2010 but bouncing back by 3.2 percent in 2010. The IMF shows a similar track in the year ahead, but sees a smaller bouncer back in 2010 for New Zealand.

NZ Real GDP %
.......................... Treasury (March yr)...........IMF (Calendar year)

2009.............................-0.5................................0.7 (2008)

2010...............................1.4.................................1.5 (2009)

2011...............................3.2.................................2.3 (2010)

The Treasury expects unemployment to rise to 5.5 percent in March 2010 and maintain that level in 2011.

Hard times indeed...

John Key & Rodney Hide Take New Zealand for Post-Election Test Drive

National leader, PM-elect, John Key and Rodney Hide, ACT leader, take the New Zealand electorate for a post-election ride...

Real Winner in New Zealand General Election?

Given all the attention in the New Zealand news media - and the interest of the public, perhaps the real winner of the NZ General Election on 8 November was:

National Wins Big in New Zealand General Election

National, as expected, pulled off a win in yesterday's general election in New Zealand. What was not fully anticipated was the huge swing under an MMP voting system to National and minor party ACT.

Seat tally at end of election night, subject to the possibility National might lose one seat to the Greens when special votes are counted:

National Party............................................59
Labour Party..............................................43
ACT............................................................5
Maori Party.................................................5
Green Party................................................8
United Future..............................................1
Progressive.................................................1

After allowing for the loss of a further seat to the Greens, National could govern with ACT and United support. National, ACT and United would have 64 MPs - two votes over the 62 majority required.

National leader John Key will face a choice between trying to govern with a slim 2 vote majority or to broaden his margin by trying to forge a working relationship with the Maori Party which won 5 seats. This is likely to be problematic given the substantial policy differences between the two parties on Maori issues. How much political expediency may be exercised remains to be seen.

Labour leader Helen Clark announced in her concession speech that she is also resigning as leader of the party. Meantime, Winston Peters, leader of New Zealand First, will be looking for a new job as he lost his electorate seat and the party failed to gain sufficient support to win any list seats.

While this was a landslide in terms of MMP voting, the question remains as to what the result actually means the New Zealand electorate wants: simply a change of management after 8 years or radical, thoroughgoing change?

With the far right of centre ACT Party now likely to be able to leverage considerable power in any coalition with National, some ACT cabinet ministers and some key ACT policies may be expected to be part of the price National will need to pay in order to govern.

But John Key studiously avoided asking the New Zealand voters for a free market, smaller government sweeping mandate. National's policy platform, like Labour's, was a patchwork of ideas with no overarching vision of taking the country in a new direction, let alone declaring how fast & substantial that change should be. In times of deepening economic crisis, this should trouble the nation.

While We're Waiting... For the New Zealand Election Results...

While we're waiting for the New Zealand General Election results to start rolling in, let's remember in the immortal words of one Fred Dagg:

And spend a little time with Dog from Footrot Flats, accompanied by Dave Dobbyn & Herbs:

Memories...

New Zealand General Election Campaign Limps To A Close: Another McCain's Election?

The New Zealand General Election campaign limps to a close within the next 24 hours. No broad vision, no coherent set of policies has been provided by the two major parties, National and Labour, and with even less from most of the minor parties.

The major party leaders, Labour's Helen Clark and National's John Key, have quibbled over this and that, eking out a policy here and there, unable to find anything much of the other side's policy they might like. Unlike the US election just completed, neither leader seems to be able to find anything much about the other one to admire or respect. No shared vision of New Zealand or what it means to be a Kiwi, or not so much as either cared to share with the electorate.

The tendency in New Zealand politics over the past 25-30 years to mimic US presidential-style electioneering means that the current and would-be front bench leadership has been missing in action. Voters could be excused if tested on who these politicians were and what they had been saying during the campaign.

Even the pollsters seem to have given up, the latest poll having been released in mid October they seem to have departed for the beaches of Fiji.

The news media seem bored in having to post an occasional campaign story - the lowlights in reporting in the past week being Ms Clark tripping in a cafe at Riccarton Mall or Mr Key being heckled by a few opponents in Christchurch's Cathedral Square, par for the course for anyone who opens their mouth in the Square. This passes for political journalism when the pickings are slim.

As for policy positions, National has progressively moved to the centre, so close to Labour's policies it has become difficult for the observant voter to distinguish the two aside from the brand name. This is Hotelling's law at work. Economist Harold Hotelling observed that competitors or political opponents will produce products or policies that are similar to one another in order to attract the greatest number sales or votes by appealing to the median customer or voter.

Take Wellington's Oriental Bay beach, for example, with two ice cream sellers located at the start of the day at either end of the beach.

Over the course of the day, they will move their carts closer and closer to the middle of the beach to attract the most buyers (or voters). So, Helen and John, ice cream vendors, end up back-to-back in the centre of the beach dispensing their wares.

The best argument that it seems that can be made for voting for National in this election - they have a substantial lead in polls - is that they are Not-Labour. But their policies and leadership make them seem very much like just another ice cream seller.

Both parties missed the key message of the US election campaign and the "secret" of Barack Obama's success.

He articulated a vision of a United States that would take a new direction, that would abandon the failed, painful policies of the past 8 years under George W Bush.

Obama's is an optimistic vision - about how that country can be different, can rebuild its relationship with the rest of the world, and can take care of itself by rebuilding a sense of community beyond a mere aggregation of individuals. Whether you agree with it or not, it persuaded a majority of American voters it was worth taking a chance on.

The same cannot be said for National or Labour. Both parties have taken on the John McCain losing strategy: erratic, disorganized, whining, sniping, tear down the other guy, and lacking much of any vision. Both have failed to capture the interest and enthusiasm of younger citizen voters, a phenomenon that helped propel Obama that last step into the highest office for a person of colour in a cumulative transformation of US race relations over the last 150 years.

Instead, Kiwi voters are faced with another type of McCain's election - as in the frozen foods brand.

After the election is over and done with, voters may get a McCain's surprise: they may find yet another dead mouse among the frozen veggies (See Fair Go segment here for explanation).

"Ah, Labour/National, you've done it again".

Now get out and vote - sensibly!

Final Leaders Debate in New Zealand General Election - Big Yawn, Kiwis Get An Extra Hour's Shut-eye

The final leaders debate turned out to be a bit of a yawn. The video is here on Television New Zealand's website.

Both Labour's Helen Clark and National's John Key sought to ride on the coat tails of Barack Obama's ascendancy to the US Presidency.

But to paraphrase the late US Senator Lloyd Bentsen: "I know Barack Obama, and Ms Clark, Mr Key, you're no Barack Obama".

Neither has the vision, the intellect, or the power to draw in a new generation of citizens and from across broad socio-economic groups by challenging them to take their society in a new direction.

Instead, Key and Clark trolled through a range of policy issues, bogging down in the minutae, with little attempt to provide a broader vision that explained to voters how and where they intend to lead the country. At one stage the debate degenerated to the level of what misdemeanor transgressions of the law they may have committed in their youth.

By the way, note to Mr Key: It's not Barrack Obama, but Baaaa-rak Obama! Probably a good thing to get right before you arrive at the front door of the White House.

And a note to the journalist questioner, Tracy Watkins, purportedly the Dominion Post's political editor, who'd been speaking to Joe the taxi driver on her way to the debate and who based a health & education question on her cab conversation with Joe: that's lazy journalism. It is such a hackneyed, lazy way of conducting "research". We thought the lead-in "I was talking to a taxi driver..." was a phrase that had died a merciful death decades ago in New Zealand. Appears not, sadly.

For better quality journalism, next time talk to a Chicago cab driver for better questions - they constitute a United Nations of cabbies and most of them listen to public radio which means they are well-informed about world affairs. Plus, for the price of the fare, you get a high speed chase through the Loop, something that debate viewers would've paid gold for. Anything to provide a bit of an adrenalin rush.

TV3 Leaders Debate in New Zealand General Election

The Christchurch Press is calling the Labour and National Party leaders debate on TV3 on 3 November "an honourable draw" here.

TV3's Campbell Live video archive here provides the debate in its entirety - in parts - with a post-debate panel discussion.

Labour leader Helen Clark said afterwards she thought she'd rattled National leader John Key. For his part, Key said the debate was scrappy at times, but both leaders had a fair hearing and he wouldn't declare a winner.

Moderator John Campbell challenged both leaders to be specific in terms of policies that would turn around long run economic decline and bolster future economic development. Both leaders were confronted with their "fatalism", for focusing solely on "ambulances at the bottom of the cliff" such as emergency unemployment benefits as the global financial crisis bites.

As Campbell pointed out, both leaders tried to claim credit for the least popular piece of legislation in recent times, the Anti-Smacking Act which bars parents from smacking their children other than "inconsequential" smacking.

Campbell suggested to Clark that she is coming near to the end of her natural life as a prime minister but saved some heat for Key asserting his National front bench leadership was "as fresh as a seven-day-old snapper".

Clark struck her strongest blows against Key when she highlighted National's lack of connection to & support of the Pasifika community in South Auckland. Labour is hoping to turn out the Pacific Island vote in South Auckland on election day, a bedrock of Labour support when it turns out to vote.

Key landed his biggest blow when he talked of Labour's nanny state that was "storming through your front door" with new environmental regulations on lightbulbs and shower heads. (He should probably take a trip to Schwarzenegger California to get a good idea of his "nanny state" environmental regulation that is not just Democratic, but Republican. The reality is green is crossing ideological lines.)

On New Zealand - US relations, both leaders said they would work with either US presidential candidate, both who are "very talented". Clark commented on Obama being "the most gifted and charismatic" politician and Key noting "McCain is a good friend of New Zealand" but that Obama's election would truly be historic.

New Zealand Government Issues Wholesale Funds Guarantee as Election Nears

The New Zealand government has moved to provide a guarantee on wholesale funds in the financial system. The objective is to assist the re-entry of New Zealand financial institutions into foreign currency-denominated international lending markets but will also be available to cover NZ dollar denominated debt. Press statement here. Operational guidelines here.

Financial institutions will have to opt-in to the scheme by institution and by debt instrument. Issuers will be required to disclose whether or not particular paper is government guaranteed.

Only institutions with an investment grade credit rating of BBB- or better will be permitted to use the facility. The wholesale guarantee will only be available to financial institutions and not to corporate or municipal issuers of paper. The guarantee will only be available for up to 125 percent of an institution's total stock of eligible types of debt on issue prior to the intensification of the global financial crisis, dated to 12 October 2008.

Only paper issued in NZD, AUD, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY, HKD, and SGD currencies will be covered.

Guarantee fees will be charged on the basis of the particular financial institution's credit rating. Dr Cullen, Minister of Finance, estimates that the fees could raise NZ$1 billion which will be set aside as a fund to cover the guarantees in event of defaults.

The scheme will be continued until financial market conditions return to "relative normality for a sustained period" but given the nature of the international financial crisis "the guarantee scheme is likely to continue to be offered for some time."

Together with the US$15 billion currency swap arrangement with the US Federal Reserve announced mid-last week, the wholesale guarantee scheme should act to underpin the short term fund raising undertaken by New Zealand's trading banks in international markets.

New Zealand Government Exchanges Letters with Lending Institutions over Distressed Mortgages as Election Looms in Background

The Minister of Finance, Dr Michael Cullen, says the Crown and New Zealand's largest mortgage lending banks have exchanged letters on the approach the banks will take in handling distressed mortgages.

Dr Cullen said the Labour Government places high value on home ownership for New Zealanders and on assisting to keep them in their own homes during periods of temporary financial distress.

To that end, the banks have assured the Crown that distressed mortgage loans will be evaluated on a case by case basis and where there is a reasonable expectation that mortgage-servicing could be resumed within a reasonable period, they will use their best endeavours to work with borrowers to avoid forced sales where appropriate.

Banks will restructure mortgage loans by capitalising interest or temporarily reducing servicing obligations in order to assist borrowers to deal with short term financial difficulties. Foreclosure will be a final resort, not a first option.

New Zealand Gains Currency Swap Facility with Federal Reserve as New Zealand Election Looms

Much under-reported by the New Zealand news media and certainly overlooked for its significance, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced on 29 October in a short press release that the US Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee had approved a US$15 billion (NZ$26 billion) temporary reciprocal currency swap facility.

The currency swap will permit the provision of US dollar liquidity to New Zealand markets up to $15 billion through to 30 April 2009.

The currency swap, though modest by international standards, is similar to those used in the past month or two to ensure liquidity in the European Union, Japan, and elsewhere, where the Fed has essentially adopted a de facto international lender of last resort function.

When combined with evidence of tightening liquidity in New Zealand and the mis-management of the introduction of the recent introduced deposit guarantee system, the currency swap facility is no doubt an important lifeline for the Reserve Bank in its liquidity management in the months ahead.

Evidence is mounting of emerging liquidity problems. Expectations are that New Zealand trading banks which raise loan funds from issuing short-term commercial paper in London, a market that has effectively dried up in the short run, are very likely to have problems raising funds in the months ahead.

Reserve Bank data shows that $100 million of funds have been drawn down from the Reserve Bank's mortgage-backed securities liquidity facility recently. And the major trading banks have been quick to sign up for the government's deposit guarantee system.

Managed funds outside the deposit guarantee system are now experiencing a flight of funds to guaranteed deposits in other institutions, causing AXA New Zealand to freeze three of its mortgage-backed funds with $225 million under management.

Problems with the coverage of the Australian deposit guarantee system has seen Australian managed funds freeze more than A$24 billion in order to remain solvent.

Within the next 24 hours, the New Zealand government is also expected to announce its plans for a guarantee system for wholesale deposits to shore up the liquidity concerns surrounding the inability of the trading banks to secure funds in the London market for their lending operations within New Zealand. This should, perhaps, have been a first step in any deposit guarantee system rather than the retail deposit guarantee, especially as there was no imminent threat of a depositer run on banks.

National's Emergency Worker Assistance $42 million Package in New Zealand Election Campaign

National leader John Key unveiled the party's emergency economic assistance policy for those who become unemployed as a result of the economic crisis.

For families eligible for tax credits under Working For Families, the in-work tax credit, valued at $60 per week, will continue for up to 16 weeks after a worker is laid off. Additionally, the accommodation supplement available to unemployed workers will be raised up to $100 per week to assist in making rent and mortgage payments.

The package is estimated by National to cost $42 million.

In addressing the distribution of benefits received by banks and the unemployed, Key reminded banks that the taxpayer was funding the deposit guarantee system and there was an expectation that banks would "be very careful about the manner in which they deal with customers who may, as a consequence of the global financial crisis, find it hard to meet their obligations."

As the election campaign heads into its final week, the economic policies of the two major parties are becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish from one another. This may pose a greater risk for National as it attempts to secure a vote sufficient to give it a clear majority to govern without relying on support from minor parties such as the Maori Party.

Overseas Votes Could Make The Difference in New Zealand General Election

"On current trends, about 50 percent more Kiwis overseas are likely to vote this year than in 2005," according to Ivan Moss, chief executive of the Kiwi Expats Association (Kea) network.

As of Wednesday, 56,152 overseas New Zealanders had enrolled to vote, and if patterns seen in previous elections are repeated, this will rise to around 60,000 by election day. This is, however, just a 10th of Kiwis living abroad.

If only 70 percent of those enrolled vote, that will make a record 42,000 overseas votes in this year's election, compared with 28,000 in 2005.

A recent paper by Kiwi Alan Gamlen, working on his PhD in political geography at Oxford University, shows that relatively small numbers of overseas votes have changed previous elections.

As is well-known by even the casual student of NZ history, the overseas vote of soldiers still abroad after World War I defeated the 1919 prohibition referendum. In 1943, the overseas vote, again largely military, tipped the balance and ensured the re-election of the Fraser-led Labour Government.

More recently, Gamlen suggests that in 1993 overseas votes appeared to be "the feather that tipped the final result in National's favour" in the decisive Waitaki electorate which resulted in a National party majority of one in parliament.

"Because overseas voting patterns tend to be different, Kiwis overseas could make a real difference in this year's election," said Mr Moss.

Labour Steals A March Over National on Emergency Unemployment Policy in Election Campaign

Stealing a march on National which is expected to announce its policy to respond to the effects of the global economic crisis, Labour's leader Helen Clark released details of her party's emergency unemployment benefit today.

The normal waiting period for unemployment benefits will be reduced to 1-2 weeks and means-testing will not be applied to the first 13 weeks of benefit payment. Only those laid off or made redundant would be eligible.

Labour estimates the cost of the transitional assistance package at $50 million, with the funding coming from within existing government revenues.

Green Co-Leader Blind Sides Key Taking New Zealand General Election to the Mall

Seeking to confront National leader John Key on his party's apparent backsliding on the Kyoto Protocol to combat global climate change and statements that farmers will be exempt from an emissions trading scheme (ETS) under a National government, Green Party co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons went shopping for Key at a Kapiti Coast mall.

According to Fitzsimons, National MPs in Hawkes Bay have been telling farmers that these positions are part of National's environmental policy.

Key told Fitzsimons that National's policy is to remain committed to the Kyoto Protocol but that National will be reviewing how the ETS affects farmers. Nonetheless, National will be retaining some form of ETS.

Since both leaders of the majority parties have refused to appear on the same campaign platform as minor party leaders, Fitzsimons decided to take matters in her own hands to get to speak with Key directly.

Labour Party's Stance on Entrenching Maori Seats

Helen Clark, Labour Party leader, has said "I don't have any particular difficulty with entrenching those" Maori seats that are created on the basis of the numbers of voters registered on the Maori electoral rolls.

She clarified that she meant entrenching the seats through the electoral option rather than entrenching a set number of seats.

Entrenching the Maori seats means that a 75 percent majority of parliament would be required to abolish the seats.

The Maori Party, likely to play a pivotal role in any coalition or support agreement with a major party post-election, has made it a condition of support for a major party to form a government that the Maori seats be entrenched.

The political problem is less with Labour and more with National since National has declared it will seek to abolish the Maori seats by 2014, although National leader John Key has said during the election campaign that this position is "not the bottom line" on the issue.

National's Infrastructure Policy in the New Zealand Election

National party leader John Key announced his party's election policy on infrastructure on Monday. More details here.

A National government would spend $8.55 billion on new infrastructure over the next six years, some $3.7 billion more than the Labour's infrastructure policy provides for.

National sees its policy as part of a "stepped up" capital spending plan to act as a counter-cyclical macroeconomic management plan to deal with the forecast decline in economic activity resulting from the global financial crisis.

Key identified several major projects, already announced as part of National's election policy, that would expand New Zealand's infrastructure. Expanding the broadband network will be the single largest project, costing $1.5 billion over six years. Roading and other transport projects, including the Waikato expressway, will total $750 million and additional prison facilities at a cost of $315 million will be constructed. National will also increase the building programme for schools by $500 million over three years.

Further infrastructure projects will be announced later this week.

Infrastructure projects will be funded in part by capital channeled through the 40 percent of contributions in the New Zealand Superannuation Fund being directed to the purchase of NZ-based assets. Key has been reluctant to state whether the deposit guarantee fees payable by the major trading banks, estimated at $100 million, will be used to help finance infrastructure despite speculation that National will do so. Key has said National will not borrow to finance infrastructure.

National pledges to streamline and speed up resource consents required under the Resource Management Act (RMA). A "Priority Consent" will be introduced to streamline resource consents for major infrastructure projects of "critical national importance". While environmental assessment will still be required, consents will be removed to the national level with local councils no longer involved in the priority consent process. A decision on priority consents will be required within 9 months.

Older voters, and students of recent NZ economic history, will recall National's "fast track procedure" that was rammed through in the National Development Act of 1979, an environmental impact assessment being required as a response to appease public resistance to fast tracking projects in the "national interest" that might otherwise be subject to insufficient public oversight.

Although only three projects were fast-tracked before the legislation was repealed by a Labour government in 1986, a National government in 1981 narrowed the basis for environmental assessment and the grounds for judicial review of such reports. Voters might well be best advised to adopt a "once bitten, twice shy" approach to this particular element of National's infrastructure policy.

Labour's Infrastructure Policy in the New Zealand General Election

The Labour party's infrastructure policy released during the New Zealand election campaign envisions a a twenty year plan for sustainable infrastructure development. More details here.

Over that time period, Labour would seek to achieve a 90% renewable electricity generation target, work with local government to set priorities for local infrastructure investment, and improve New Zealand's water quality and sustainability of water usage.

Having re-nationalised rail track and then rail operations into the Kiwi Rail state-owned enterprise, Labour intends to expand long-haul rail freight as part of its plan for a more sustainable transportation policy. It will also support creation of a electricified rail network for the greater Auckland metro area including the North Shore to expand commuter rail and ease road congestion in the country's largest urban area.

Like National, Labour will also accelerate the pace of investment in the broadband network to improve productivity in business, government, universities, hospitals, and schools.

To fund its long term infrastructure plan, Labour will issue long-term infrastructure bonds which have a tax-free inflation-indexed element. Additionally, public-private partnerships will be adopted where it is cost-effective to do so to reduce the burden on the taxpayer of financing projects where infrastructure bond funds are insufficient.

Labour Narrows the Gap - Colmar Brunton Poll on New Zealand General Election

The latest TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll suggests Labour is closing the gap on National with less than a fortnight to go till the General Election in New Zealand.

National dropped 3 percent to 47 percent support in the latest poll while Labour dropped 1 to 35 percent - a gap of 12 percent.

But the real gap closer is the surge in support for the Greens - up 3 to 8 percent (a level mirrored in other recent polls) and the Maori Party, up 1 to 3 percent but the latter has a strong chance of securing most of the 7 Maori electorate seats. The Colmar-Brunton polls assumes the Maori Party will take four of those seats. ACT support was unchanged on 2 percent, while NZ First moved up 1 to 3 percent.

Based on these poll results, and United Future's declaration yesterday that it will support National to form a government after the election, National could govern with 59 seats + 3 ACT + 1 United Future in a 122 seat Parliament.

A Labour-led coalition of 44 seats + 10 Greens + 1 Progressive = 55, would leave Labour needing the 4 or more Maori Party seats and possibly 1 NZ First seat (Winston Peters) but still short of a majority.

But it would take only a swing of 2-3 percent towards Labour and its support parties for a coalition to be possible.

An election on a knife edge, indeed. And one in which overseas Kiwi votes might count more than ever in affecting the result. Soooooooooooo - GET OUT THE VOTE, whoever you decide to vote for!

What Deserts A Sinking Ship? United Future Opts for National in New Zealand General Election

United Future, or more precisely, its leader, Peter Dunne does.

United Future leader & one-man band, Peter Dunne, has brokered a deal with the National Party to support National in any post-election governance arrangement. Currently serving in the Labour government as Minister of Revenue, Dunne has rejected Labour - with effect after the election, of course.

Applying the Peter Principle - reworked by Mr Dunne as "What's good for Peter, is good for the party and nation" - he has negotiated himself a nice cabinet spot in any National government after the election.

Apparently after three years at the public trough collecting a minister's salary & perks it has dawned on Mr Dunne that Labour is no longer for him or United Future.

While arguing that a Labour-Green coalition allied with the Maori Party would pull government too far left of centre, Mr Dunne is no doubt more worried that such a multi-party coalition would squeeze him out of another run at the trough with the larger minority parties getting ahead in the queue for ministerial spots. And he has said as much, cloaked in the code of United Future having difficulty getting its policies addressed.

United Future is barely posting electoral support at 0.4 percent of the party vote; only Dunne's electorate seat keeps the party represented in parliament.

Even with 1 United Future seat on their side, National may still have a struggle to form a government without the Maori Party as latest polls show the gap between National and Labour coalitions narrowing.