The latest TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll suggests Labour is closing the gap on National with less than a fortnight to go till the General Election in New Zealand.
National dropped 3 percent to 47 percent support in the latest poll while Labour dropped 1 to 35 percent - a gap of 12 percent.
But the real gap closer is the surge in support for the Greens - up 3 to 8 percent (a level mirrored in other recent polls) and the Maori Party, up 1 to 3 percent but the latter has a strong chance of securing most of the 7 Maori electorate seats. The Colmar-Brunton polls assumes the Maori Party will take four of those seats. ACT support was unchanged on 2 percent, while NZ First moved up 1 to 3 percent.
Based on these poll results, and United Future's declaration yesterday that it will support National to form a government after the election, National could govern with 59 seats + 3 ACT + 1 United Future in a 122 seat Parliament.
A Labour-led coalition of 44 seats + 10 Greens + 1 Progressive = 55, would leave Labour needing the 4 or more Maori Party seats and possibly 1 NZ First seat (Winston Peters) but still short of a majority.
But it would take only a swing of 2-3 percent towards Labour and its support parties for a coalition to be possible.
An election on a knife edge, indeed. And one in which overseas Kiwi votes might count more than ever in affecting the result. Soooooooooooo - GET OUT THE VOTE, whoever you decide to vote for!
Showing posts with label Opinion Poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Opinion Poll. Show all posts
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Thursday, October 23, 2008
TV3 Poll Shows New Zealand Election Tightening Up
The latest TV3 opinion poll of voter preferences in the New Zealand General Election shows the race tightening up, thanks to the MMP voting system, on who will be able to govern after 8 November.
While Labour's support falls to 37.4 percent with National's remaining unchanged at 45.1 percent, the Greens have surged to 8.8 percent in the poll likely reflecting disaffected center-left voters transferring their party vote from Labour to the Greens.
This transfer of support has not been lost on Labour leader Helen Clark who is exhorting: "My message to Labour supporters is if you want a Labour-led government please vote Labour and give us the strength to negotiate later."
The poll results suggest that the new parliament will have an overhang of 123 seats: 57 for National and 47 for Labour, insufficient for either party to command a majority to govern alone.
National could likely cobble together a coalition of support with ACT (2) and United Future (1), giving a total of 60, but still not enough to govern.
National has ruled out an alliance with Winston Peters' NZ First party, which might only provide 1 additional seat. NZ First support grew to 3.5 percent in the latest poll but not enough to cross the 5 percent threshold for the party vote to ensure list representation in parliament.
Labour, on the other hand, has more "friends", having been careful at least to keep the flap open on the big tent. The Greens have announced this week (see earlier post) that their objectives are more closely aligned to Labour's policies.
The Maori Party co-leader Dr Pita Sharples, responding to Maori voter preferences for a coalition agreement with Labour rather than National, is also leaning in Labour's direction while his co-leader Turiana Turia is keeping the door open to National.
Turia has even been ready to forgive and forget within a day or so the racist comments of National's Immigration spokesman, Lockwood Smith, about Asian and Pasifika workers. Quite what she expects to achieve in terms of significant policy advances for Maori with a National-led government is at this stage largely left unexplained by Ms Turia.
Labour, then, could cobble together a coalition: Labour (47), Progressives (1), Greens (11), totalling 59 seats. Again, insufficient to command a majority in parliament and therefore the power to govern.
Thus, the Maori Party with a likely 6 to 7 seats will hold the balance of power, being the king - or queen - maker in the new parliament, determining who sits on the Treasury benches.
For National, leader John Key is going to have to work hard on damage-control as some of his dinosaur shadow cabinet members make racist comments or insist on drawing attention to road toll schemes that would cost the average citizen as much per week as the National tax cut they would receive.
In the remaining time before the election, Key will also have to start showing a more conciliatory and bridge-building stance towards Maori, something that will be a high wire act - perhaps beyond his abilities or inclination - as steps in this direction will likely alienate many of his core National voters.
For the Maori Party leadership the stakes are high. If they follow their voter support, they will gather under Labour's big tent where they could count on the Greens as allies to exert significant pressure on Labour to improve their performance on Maori issues.
Or Maori Party leadership can get out in front of their base support and align with National. This bears grave risks: National is likely to disappoint on Maori issues and the Maori Party faces a rout in three years time when disaffected voters in the Maori electorates could very well toss out Maori Party MPs in favour of Labour ones, returning to a longer term alliance of Maori electoral support for Labour and setting back the Maori Party cause.
While Labour's support falls to 37.4 percent with National's remaining unchanged at 45.1 percent, the Greens have surged to 8.8 percent in the poll likely reflecting disaffected center-left voters transferring their party vote from Labour to the Greens.
This transfer of support has not been lost on Labour leader Helen Clark who is exhorting: "My message to Labour supporters is if you want a Labour-led government please vote Labour and give us the strength to negotiate later."
The poll results suggest that the new parliament will have an overhang of 123 seats: 57 for National and 47 for Labour, insufficient for either party to command a majority to govern alone.
National could likely cobble together a coalition of support with ACT (2) and United Future (1), giving a total of 60, but still not enough to govern.
National has ruled out an alliance with Winston Peters' NZ First party, which might only provide 1 additional seat. NZ First support grew to 3.5 percent in the latest poll but not enough to cross the 5 percent threshold for the party vote to ensure list representation in parliament.
Labour, on the other hand, has more "friends", having been careful at least to keep the flap open on the big tent. The Greens have announced this week (see earlier post) that their objectives are more closely aligned to Labour's policies.
The Maori Party co-leader Dr Pita Sharples, responding to Maori voter preferences for a coalition agreement with Labour rather than National, is also leaning in Labour's direction while his co-leader Turiana Turia is keeping the door open to National.
Turia has even been ready to forgive and forget within a day or so the racist comments of National's Immigration spokesman, Lockwood Smith, about Asian and Pasifika workers. Quite what she expects to achieve in terms of significant policy advances for Maori with a National-led government is at this stage largely left unexplained by Ms Turia.
Labour, then, could cobble together a coalition: Labour (47), Progressives (1), Greens (11), totalling 59 seats. Again, insufficient to command a majority in parliament and therefore the power to govern.
Thus, the Maori Party with a likely 6 to 7 seats will hold the balance of power, being the king - or queen - maker in the new parliament, determining who sits on the Treasury benches.
For National, leader John Key is going to have to work hard on damage-control as some of his dinosaur shadow cabinet members make racist comments or insist on drawing attention to road toll schemes that would cost the average citizen as much per week as the National tax cut they would receive.
In the remaining time before the election, Key will also have to start showing a more conciliatory and bridge-building stance towards Maori, something that will be a high wire act - perhaps beyond his abilities or inclination - as steps in this direction will likely alienate many of his core National voters.
For the Maori Party leadership the stakes are high. If they follow their voter support, they will gather under Labour's big tent where they could count on the Greens as allies to exert significant pressure on Labour to improve their performance on Maori issues.
Or Maori Party leadership can get out in front of their base support and align with National. This bears grave risks: National is likely to disappoint on Maori issues and the Maori Party faces a rout in three years time when disaffected voters in the Maori electorates could very well toss out Maori Party MPs in favour of Labour ones, returning to a longer term alliance of Maori electoral support for Labour and setting back the Maori Party cause.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Colmar Brunton New Zealand Election Poll – 12 October 2008
TV One's latest Colmar-Brunton poll released on 12 October shows National continuing to lead Labour by a wide margin of 18 points in the New Zealand General Election campaign.
National: 63/124 - a majority possible
Labour: 41 plus Greens + Maori Party + Progressive + United Future (18) = 59/124, majority not possible.
National’s support slipped a percent to 51 percent while Labour remained unchanged at 33 percent.
Among the minor parties, the Greens rose a percent to 8 percent, remaining the only party to cross the 5 percent party list threshold.
The Maori party posted a further small gain, rising to 2.8 percent but their support in Maori electorates also continues to strengthen. NZ First gained 0.6 to garner 2.6 percent support.
The poll was taken between 4 and 9 October before the main parties campaigns opened on October 12. The margin of error is 3.5 percent.
Based on these numbers, the projections of the seats to be held by each party in the new parliament are:
National.............63
Labour...............41
Green................10
NZ First...............0
Maori..................6
United Future.......1
ACT....................2
Progressive..........1
Total................124
Based on projections that the Maori Party wins 6 Maori seats, ACT, United Future, and Progressives win one each.
Possible coalition options:National: 63/124 - a majority possible
Labour: 41 plus Greens + Maori Party + Progressive + United Future (18) = 59/124, majority not possible.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
National Maintains Wide Margin Over Labour in Election Race
With just under 5 weeks till the General Election on Saturday, 8 November, the National Party continues to lead Labour, the governing party, by 19 points.
TV One's latest Colmar-Brunton poll shows National support at 52 percent, with Labour support easing off 1 percent to 33 percent.
Among the minor parties, only the Greens garner sufficient support, gaining 2 points to reach 7 percent, to cross the 5 percent party list threshold to give them representation in the new parliament without having to win electorate seats.
The Maori party posted a small gain from 1.8 to 2.5 percent but their support in Maori electorates is likely to ensure re-election in a number of seats they already hold.
In the past week or so, Maori Party MPs have been making public statements that suggest the Maori Party will consider a coalition arrangement with National, provided the Maori Party is represented within the Cabinet.
TV One's latest Colmar-Brunton poll shows National support at 52 percent, with Labour support easing off 1 percent to 33 percent.
Among the minor parties, only the Greens garner sufficient support, gaining 2 points to reach 7 percent, to cross the 5 percent party list threshold to give them representation in the new parliament without having to win electorate seats.
The Maori party posted a small gain from 1.8 to 2.5 percent but their support in Maori electorates is likely to ensure re-election in a number of seats they already hold.
In the past week or so, Maori Party MPs have been making public statements that suggest the Maori Party will consider a coalition arrangement with National, provided the Maori Party is represented within the Cabinet.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
National Posts Huge Lead Over Labour in Latest Opinion Poll
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The National party continues to post a huge lead over the ruling Labour Party in the last Fairfax-Nielson poll released on 20 September. It would take a major swing for Labour to win a fourth term in government when voters go to the polls on 8 November.
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