The Maori Party - 2008 New Zealand General Election

The Maori Party is likely to play a major role in the process to form a new government after the November 8 General Election, either as a coalition partner for National or Labour, or in some type of support role to enable one of the major parties to govern.

The Maori Party holds 4 of the 7 Maori electorate seats and hopes to win them all.

Maori seats, of which there were 4 originally, were established by New Zealand's parliament in 1867.

Latest polls show Maori voters are placing pressure on the Maori Party to forge a post-election deal with Labour rather than National.

The latest TVNZ Marae programme DigiPolls in Te Tai Tokerau (Northland region) and Tamaki Makaurau (Auckland region) Maori seats show there is about 70 per cent support for the Maori Party doing a post-election deal with Labour. Poll results here.

But 62 percent of voters in the two electorates opposed a post-election deal with National.

This underscores the historical deep-seated mistrust of National among the Maori electorate. This was only deepened when the former National leader Don Brash's Orewa speech in 2004 criticised what he called the "Treaty of Waitangi Grievance Industry" and called for an end to affirmative action policies for Maori. Furthermore, National has advocated abolition of the Maori seats so Maori electors are justifiably suspicious.

But given the importance of the second vote cast under the MMP electoral system, Labour has cause to be concerned about the trend in party voting in the two Maori electorates surveyed.

In Te Tai Tokerau, the Maori Party stands to pick up 45 percent of the party vote to Labour's 35 percent, while in Tamaki Makaurau the Maori Party is running at just over 41 percent of the party vote to Labour's 37.5 percent.

Labour forged a strong and long lasting relationship with the Ratana movement in 1935 that ensured Maori support for Labour for the next sixty years in Maori seats.

In 1996, however, the New Zealand First party, though not a Maori political party but with a strong Maori wing, won all four Maori seats from Labour.

While Labour won all the seats back three years later, a deep rift with Maoridom was created when Labour pushed through the Foreshore and Seabed Act in 2004 that overruled the Court of Appeal's decision in Attorney-General v Ngati Apa (2003) that Maori were entitled to seek customary title over parts of New Zealand's foreshore and seabed in the Maori Land Court. The Act effectively extinguished any Maori customary title over the foreshore and seabed.

Tariana Turia then a junior minister in the Labour government voted against the bill and resigned from the party, forming the Maori Party with her allies. She is currently a co-leader with Dr Pita Sharples.

Maori Party co-leader, Dr Pita Sharples, interviewed on NZOneTonight in September 2008 about the principles and policies important to the Maori Party and its supporters:

Gordon Campbell of Scoop interviews Hone Harawira, Maori Party MP, on the Maori Party's election strategy here.

The Maori Party's website is www.maoriparty.com

Colmar Brunton New Zealand Election Poll – 12 October 2008

TV One's latest Colmar-Brunton poll released on 12 October shows National continuing to lead Labour by a wide margin of 18 points in the New Zealand General Election campaign.

National’s support slipped a percent to 51 percent while Labour remained unchanged at 33 percent.

Among the minor parties, the Greens rose a percent to 8 percent, remaining the only party to cross the 5 percent party list threshold.

The Maori party posted a further small gain, rising to 2.8 percent but their support in Maori electorates also continues to strengthen. NZ First gained 0.6 to garner 2.6 percent support.

The poll was taken between 4 and 9 October before the main parties campaigns opened on October 12. The margin of error is 3.5 percent.

Based on these numbers, the projections of the seats to be held by each party in the new parliament are:

National.............63

Labour...............41

Green................10

NZ First...............0

Maori..................6

United Future.......1

ACT....................2

Progressive..........1

Total................124

Based on projections that the Maori Party wins 6 Maori seats, ACT, United Future, and Progressives win one each.

Possible coalition options:

National: 63/124 - a majority possible

Labour: 41 plus Greens + Maori Party + Progressive + United Future (18) = 59/124, majority not possible.

Silver Ferns Win Netball Test Against England 65-26

The Silver Ferns, New Zealand's womens netball team, overwhelmed England 65-26 in their opening game of a three test match series in Auckland on Monday evening (NZT).

Last week England came within 3 points of upsetting Australia, current world champions. New Zealand ran a close game to Australia in the last World Cup final held in Auckland in November 2007, losing 42-38.

Joline Henry, GD, WD, player of the match

New Zealand Economist on Deposit Insurance and Financial Markets

New Zealand economist Murray Weatherstone interviewed on TV3's Sunrise show on the Government's new deposit insurance scheme and the state of New Zealand financial markets:

video link

Labour, National, and Act Deliver Sunday Election Liturgies

Labour, National and ACT leaders Helen Clark, John Key, and Rodney Hide delivered their opening campaign sermons by preaching to the choir on Sunday.

Prime Minister Helen Clark's speech focused on how a Labour government would respond to the effects of the global economic crisis on New Zealand. (Speech & Labour's 2008 website here.)

In the short term, Labour will introduce voluntary deposit insurance for financial institutions including banks, building societies, credit unions, and finance companies.

Clark announced that if re-elected her December Economic Statement would include an economic stimulus package that brought forward government spending on infrastructure in the form of roading, sewerage systems, and rail systems between Wellington and Palmerston North as well as to the oil refinery at Marsden Point. Additional funding for “modern” apprenticeships will also be provided. All this is a pale, barely perceptible shadow of the economic recovery programme of the First Labour Government in the 1930s.

Of course, no costing of this economic stimulus package was offered to voter/taxpayers.

National's John Key preaching to his gospel singers slammed the Labour Government for nine years without tax cuts (on 1 October, barely a month before the election Labour tax cuts started), a doubling of interest rates, a widening wage gap with Australia, a loss of Kiwis emigrating permanently, and inflation going 'through the roof' (the current inflation rate is about 5%; Mr Key perhaps was recalling the double digit inflation during the government of one of his predecessor’s Sir Robert Muldoon). Key's speech here - transcript & video.

National announced moderate tax cut plans for middle class and high income taxpayers as part of its economic package last week but some low income families currently eligible for tax benefits through the existing Working for Families programme would be worse off.

National also proposes to clip the wings of the contributory savings scheme, Kiwisaver, if elected. It will cap employer contributions at 2 percent, although the current scheme would raise them to 4 percent, as well as cutting the government’s tax credits to savers’ accounts, hitting hardest on low-income savers. No opinion poll data yet on how voters are reacting specifically to the pruning of Kiwisaver and National’s intent to abrogate contracts, but National’s narrowing lead over Labour may be an indirect sign.

Voters with a memory or good knowledge of New Zealand political history will recall an earlier National Administration that axed the New Zealand Superannuation scheme in 1975. Then, National’s newly-elected PM Robert Muldoon terminated the scheme by administrative fiat only to run foul of the constitution in the form of the Bill of Rights 1689, Article 1. The Chief Justice held that “King” Rob’s pretense through regal authority to suspend a law without parliament’s consent was illegal. Parliament, of course, repealed the act covering NZ Super.

One estimate made in 2007 suggested that if New Zealand Super had been permitted to operate it would have accumulated a fund of NZ$240 billion by 2007 providing each worker with NZ$111,200 superannuation assets per worker compared to the $6,300 actually available in 2007, and NZ$86,821 in Australia (article here). Of course, a recalculation today might see a 42 percent or so reduction in value but that's still about $64,500.

Among the also rans, entering the back straight as the major parties turned into the final stretch, ACT leader Rodney Hide opened his party’s campaign with the announcement that “Our goal is to beat Australia by 2020 – economically, politically, socially, environmentally, and at sport.” (Rodney must still be giddy after all that dancing with the stars… and the Aussies are surely shaking in their boots).

ACT will also support National to form a government – and there’s a fairly good prospect it will play that role based on current polling. Read full speech here and ACT website here.

Hide now has a baking plan (yes, not a banking plan): “That’s why ACT has a 20-Point-Plan to beat Australia and bring our kids home. It’s a plan to bake a bigger economic cake, not simply slice up the one we already have.”

Then losing the plot, Hide told his audience that crime is the number one issue in this election. Championing a failed US-style “three strikes and you’re out” scheme for criminals, Hide said “it’s so simple”. So simple to fill up your prisons – the US has one of the highest levels of imprisonment in the developed countries – and to do nothing to solve the underlying causes of criminality. But good news for security guards, the new growth industry, and private prison entrepreneurs since ACT surely would not wish to spend taxpayer funds on more police and state prisons.

And just in time for Halloween, ACT has resuscitated the aging Sir Roger Douglas, architect of much painful, low-growth, and destabilizing market reform of the past, to stand again for parliament.

New Zealand To Introduce Shonky Deposit Insurance

PM Helen Clark has announced the Labour government will now introduce a deposit insurance scheme that will provide coverage for the next two years. Fees for the insurance will be assessed for institutions with $5 billion or more in total retail deposits.

Update: read details released by the Reserve Bank of the "opt-in" deposit insurance scheme here.

Deposits in banks and non-banks such as building societies, credit unions, and finance companies will be covered, but each institution must choose to join.

The voluntary nature of financial institution participation underscores New Zealand misunderstandings of the policy objective of deposit insurance: it is designed to protect the financial system from systemic failure - a run on the banks; it is not designed to protect individual institutions from illiquidity, however much individual depositors may focus on that.

Permitting individual institutions to opt out of deposit insurance coverage is to turn your policy charged with ensuring financial system stability into a very leaky boat.

The major trading banks will very quickly get the message. To fail to join the deposit insurance system will tag their deposits as unsafe and uneasy depositors will start moving funds to insured accounts. Poor policy design, however, will create unnecessary and possibly costly uncertainty at the onset of the scheme. The "loan sharks", however, will be left to prey on unsuspecting depositors.

Thus, deposit insurance is a condition of obtaining a banking licence, not an option. Moreover, with deposit insurance - a socialisation of bank liabilities as the government through the insurance fund guarantees to back bank liabilities - must come tighter asset standards to be supervised by regulatory authorities, otherwise bankers or at least the shadier kind of financier has the incentive to take the depositor's money and run - into more speculative lending practices.

Let's hope someone at the Reserve Bank and the Treasury gets the picture on this and is persuasive enough to turn the policy around on this point.

Update: It appears that the policymakers were either in agreement with the politicians or were overridden because the Reserve Bank has announced the details of the voluntary system that is euphemistically being called "opt-in" insurance.

The National Party, in opposition but leading in the polls, was not consulted on the insurance proposal, according to leader John Key. But Key and National Finance spokesperson, Bill English, have welcomed the proposal. They do, however, expect a bi-partisan process to be followed in designing and adopting the scheme. English will be briefed by the Reserve Bank on Monday.

Given the critical importance of deposit insurance to maintaining the nation's confidence, and that of internatonal lenders, in New Zealand's financial system that is a reasonable and proper course for both political and economic reasons.

Blog comment: this blog pointed out the absence of deposit insurance in New Zealand and the vulnerability of New Zealand's financial system back in July soon after the blog's creation. In recent weeks we've called for deposit insurance to be introduced. Global events have made such a scheme inevitable. It is unfortunate that the insurance system is only a voluntary one. As argued above, carrying deposit insurance should be seen as a duty or obligation of obtaining a banking licence in order to promote the public interest in a sound and stable banking system.
Stay tuned...

Black Caps Level Cricket ODI series with Bangladesh

Jacob Oram dispatches a ball down the leg side. Cricinfo, AFP.

Saving some face after a trouncing by Bangladesh in the first game of their ODI (One Day International) cricket series, New Zealand's Black Caps came back with a win in the second match in Mirpur. New Zealand 212/9 in 50 overs, Bangladesh all out for 137 in 42.4 overs. Full scoreboard and report here.

Only solid middle order batting by Jacob Oram and tighter bowling by the Black Caps (Kyle Mills 3/13 off 6.4 overs) prevented another embarrassing day for New Zealand as the top order batting collapsed once again. Top order collapses may be the order of the day for some time yet as new, inexperienced blood becomes steeled in batting at the international level, though on this occasion it was the more experienced hands that failed to get started.

Mills knocked over the first two wickets in the Bangladesh innings which meant the rest of the order was under much more pressure than in the first ODI, resulting in the innings petering out at 137.

Glenn Turner, NZ selector & former test player, has it right when he calls for a more professional approach to New Zealand cricket (interview here). New Zealand has a thin player base to draw from and must compete to keep its best players from moving abroad, but pride in workmanship is a vital element in playing professional cricket, a point that seems to have been lost on many Black Caps in recent years who have been content to collect their pay cheques without the prerequisite productivity.