Shopkeeper Capitalism - National Party Campaign Poster 1949

 National Party Election Campaign Poster 1949

 

They won the election, thanks perhaps to the friendly shopkeeper vote. The same rhetoric was abroad in the UK, a young Margaret Thatcher earning her stripes in her father's corner shop so that later in her career she could barrack the British public in the 1980s with her vision of shopkeeper capitalism and misguidedly apply her corner shop principles to government.

 

Others were more ambivalent about the shopkeeper's role in the community as this postcard from the early 1900s suggests:

 

 

The Grocer

 

You pose for a grocer so swell,

But we're on to you full well;

Your sugar's sand, and second-hand

Is all the stuff you sell.

 

New Zealand's "Decade of Missed Opportunities" - Speech From Throne

In the Speech from the Throne delivered by Governor-General Anand Satyanand following the opening of Parliament, New Zealand's incoming Prime Minister John Key portrayed the past decade as one of "missed opportunities" in which the country's productivity and economic growth had languished.

Against the backdrop of the global economic recession, the National government will introduce a series of personal income tax cuts in 2010 and 2011 that will result in 80 percent of taxpayers only paying 20c on each additional dollar of income earned, according to Mr Key. The government will also accelerate investment in infrastructure including a school building programme to "21st century" standards. Educational standards will be strengthened and apprenticeship and other youth training programmes expanded.

In two policy areas the new National government looks likely to dredge up some old political memories. The government, following its election policy, will change the Resource Management Act to "streamline" and give priority to projects deemed of national (or National?) importance. Those with long memories, or a good knowledge of political history, will note the parallels to the Muldoon goverment's "fast tracking" of projects asserted to be of national importance in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

And in a second, historically jarring chord, the new National government will direct that at least 40 percent of New Zealand's superannuation fund is to be invested in New Zealand-based assets. In the 1975 general election campaign the same political party funded a TV ad that implied such a policy was favoured by the Labour government (incorrectly) and that the consequence would be Soviet-style communism - with cartoon Cossacks dancing across the screen. (Politicians have never been interested in historical truth - the Cossacks were staunch opponents of the Bolsheviks).

You can see the Dancing Cossacks here.

Now National appears to have come full circle and are prepared to socialize a large part of New Zealand's economy over time with the Money Manager State Capitalism of the Superannuation Fund. Die-hard, free market National supporters should be concerned about it as their forebears were in 1975. For those to the left of center, National is setting up a useful policy tool for the state to guide asset management and investment in 3 years time.

New Government Sworn in in New Zealand, PM Off to Peru

New prime minister John Key and his National Party cabinet ministers have been sworn into office. Mr Key will depart today for the APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation) summit group meeting in Lima, Peru.

While Mr Key will have just a few officials with him including two cabinet ministers, the US is taking a delegation of 900, Japan 500 and China 300.

Given how little is done at these summits, one can sympathize with the taxpayers of these respective nations at having to support such flagrant excess on the public purse.

National Secures New Zealand Government Coalition Agreement

The National party has secured agreements with the Maori Party, ACT, and United Future to lead a 70 seat majority in New Zealand's 122 seat Parliament. The coalition is limited to supply & support arrangements from the minor parties in return for ministerial posts outside Cabinet and National support or acquiescence on several key policies of the minor parties.

The Maori party will provide supply and support to National in return for two ministerial posts outside Cabinet for Maori Party co-leaders, Dr Pita Sharples and Turiana Turia. Dr Sharples will become Minister of Maori Affairs with associate posts of Education and Corrections while Ms Turia will hold the posts of Minister for the Community and Voluntary Sector, Associate Health Minister and Associate Social Development Minister. Both new ministers will have spending as well as policy responsibilities.

Dr Sharples said the Maori Party had been formed on the basis of getting into government and making a difference.

"It won't be all together terribly easy some days, but it is the opportunity that we sought," Dr Sharples said.

To secure agreement with the Maori Party, National has scrapped its plan to abolish Maori electorate seats without a majority of Maori voters approving of the measure. In return, the Maori Party is dropping its policy to seek entrenchment of Maori seats. A group will be formed to explore constitutional issues including Maori representation. National has also offered to review the controversial Foreshore and Seabed Act to determine how well it is working and whether it might be modified to better meet the goals of multiple interests.

It is only three years since the former National party leader, and former Governor of the Reserve Bank, Don Brash proposed abolishing the Maori seats and called for an end to government funding targetted at Maori as favouritism or undesirable affirmative action.

National's incoming Prime Minister, John Key, has thus reversed the more rightward shift of his party from three years ago on race relations but there will be tensions within the party because of this apparent U-turn as well as in the wider electorate, especially among the more conservative and racist elements of New Zealand society.

Building bridges, however, may be more effective in achieving National's broader policy goals with less conflict or friction with interest groups that might otherwise be expected to oppose National's main policies. This, however, is likely to create some internal pressures on the Maori party in particular.

National's other agreements with ACT and United Future are more straightforward. ACT leader Rodney Hide will hold ministerial roles outside Cabinet for Local Government and Regulatory Reform as well as the job of associate Minister of Commerce. ACT's deputy leader Heather Roy will become Minister of Consumer Affairs and associate Minister of Defence and Education.

In return, National will support legislation for ACT's three strikes sentencing policy for violent offenders - a policy that attempts to ape some of the worst of US criminal politics of recent times - to the select committee stage, so does not guarantee support on final legislation.

Further concessions to ACT include a review of government spending, presumably excluding the substantial increase in correctional facilities required for a three strikes policy (memo to Mr Hide: check US incarceration rates and that country's world ranking for imprisoning its people, mainly the poor and of colour). National has also agreed to establish a taskforce on trans-Tasman flight - of labour, not capital - to Australia. It has also agreed to delay introduction of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) but Mr Key reiterated that an amended scheme will proceed by the end of 2009.

The job-retention scheme for Peter Dunne of United Future has been locked into place: three more years as Minister of Revenue & will add Associate Minister of Health to his name tag. National has agreed to retain Dunne's Family Commission and will create a Big Game Hunting Council as part of a national wild game management strategy to get Dunne's one vote.

New Zealand Treasury Sees Hard Times on Eve of Election

The New Zealand Treasury sees hard times ahead in its November Economic and Fiscal Update of 7 November 2008, produced on the eve of the election.

The release of the document by outgoing Minister of Finance Michael Cullen of the Labour Government apparently caused consternation at No. 1 The Terrace because it was labeled "In Confidence" and was not intended for release.

National finance minister-designate Bill English has publicly complained Cullen has breached constitutional convention by failing to obtain the incoming government's approval to release sensitive information.

Cullen, seeking to make some political hay while he still has his hands on sensitive material, claimed that the paper shows the incoming National government is misleading the public into thinking that the Treasury briefing to National gave a rosier picture.

The released document, which looks like a cut & paste by a substance-abusing economist, downgrades the Treasury's earlier GDP forecasts against a backdrop of weakening international demand and a slowing domestic economy.

If anything, updated global forecasts by both the OECD and the IMF in the last 24 hours indicate that the Treasury's forecasts will need to be adjusted downwards yet again.

The Treasury predicts GDP growth in NZ's top 20 trading partners will grow by 1.8 percent in calendar year 2009 but the OECD is projecting a GDP growth rate for the OECD area of -0.3 percent.

Year................Treasury........OECD (OECD Area)

2008....................2.8.........................1.4

2009....................1.8.......................-0.3

2010....................3.0.........................1.5

The Treasury is now forecasting that the New Zealand economy will contract by -0.5 percent in March year ending 2009, growing only by 1.4 percent in 2010 but bouncing back by 3.2 percent in 2010. The IMF shows a similar track in the year ahead, but sees a smaller bouncer back in 2010 for New Zealand.

NZ Real GDP %
.......................... Treasury (March yr)...........IMF (Calendar year)

2009.............................-0.5................................0.7 (2008)

2010...............................1.4.................................1.5 (2009)

2011...............................3.2.................................2.3 (2010)

The Treasury expects unemployment to rise to 5.5 percent in March 2010 and maintain that level in 2011.

Hard times indeed...

New Zealand's National Government Will Rely on ACT for Supply & Support

The National Party will rely on the minor party, ACT, to govern. ACT will offer "supply and support" - vote with National on budget supply and on votes of confidence - but will not formally enter a coalition with National.

National PM-elect John Key is offering ministerial positions outside cabinet to several minor parties, a policy he once criticised Labour for but now concludes works well.

ACT leader Rodney Hide is expected to receive a ministerial post outside cabinet as is Peter Dunne, the leader and only MP of the United Future party.

The Maori Party has held talks with Mr Key about its possible support for a National government in the new parliament. Maori Party leaders will conduct hui with supporters in the next few days to determine whether or not the party should enter an arrangement with National in which Maori Party MPs would hold ministerial posts outside cabinet.

New Zealand Labour Party Regroups with New Leadership

Still licking its wounds from last Saturday's general election loss, the New Zealand Labour party elected Phil Goff as its new leader with Annette King as his deputy. David Cunliffe will act as Labour's finance spokesperson.

Goff served as Minister of Defence and of Trade in the outgoing government. He was Minister of Foreign Affairs until 2005 when NZ First's Winston Peters took the portfolio.

Former Prime Minister and Labour leader Helen Clark will serve as Labour's foreign affairs spokesperson while Dr Michael Cullen, former Minister of Finance, will be the Shadow Leader of the House.

At a post-election caucus, Labour farewelled ousted MPs and welcomed 13 new ones.

The new list MPs are former race relations commissioner Rajen Prasad, 28-year-old policy adviser Jacinda Ardern, Auckland lawyer Raymond Huo, former Oxfam global head of policy Phil Twyford, 31-year-old part-Tongan part-Samoan primary school teacher Carmel Sepuloni, former prime minister Walter Nash's great grandson Stuart Nash, school principal Kelvin Davis and unionist Carol Beaumont.

New electorate MPs are Clare Curran in Dunedin South, Grant Robertson in Wellington Central, Chris Hipkins in Rimutaka, Iain Lees-Galloway in Palmerston North, and Brendon Burns in Christchurch Central.

Bugger!

Going into her last Labour Party caucus after she lost her Auckland Central seat in the recent election, Judith Tizard wore a black badge that said "bugger":

John Key & Rodney Hide Take New Zealand for Post-Election Test Drive

National leader, PM-elect, John Key and Rodney Hide, ACT leader, take the New Zealand electorate for a post-election ride...

Real Winner in New Zealand General Election?

Given all the attention in the New Zealand news media - and the interest of the public, perhaps the real winner of the NZ General Election on 8 November was:

National Wins Big in New Zealand General Election

National, as expected, pulled off a win in yesterday's general election in New Zealand. What was not fully anticipated was the huge swing under an MMP voting system to National and minor party ACT.

Seat tally at end of election night, subject to the possibility National might lose one seat to the Greens when special votes are counted:

National Party............................................59
Labour Party..............................................43
ACT............................................................5
Maori Party.................................................5
Green Party................................................8
United Future..............................................1
Progressive.................................................1

After allowing for the loss of a further seat to the Greens, National could govern with ACT and United support. National, ACT and United would have 64 MPs - two votes over the 62 majority required.

National leader John Key will face a choice between trying to govern with a slim 2 vote majority or to broaden his margin by trying to forge a working relationship with the Maori Party which won 5 seats. This is likely to be problematic given the substantial policy differences between the two parties on Maori issues. How much political expediency may be exercised remains to be seen.

Labour leader Helen Clark announced in her concession speech that she is also resigning as leader of the party. Meantime, Winston Peters, leader of New Zealand First, will be looking for a new job as he lost his electorate seat and the party failed to gain sufficient support to win any list seats.

While this was a landslide in terms of MMP voting, the question remains as to what the result actually means the New Zealand electorate wants: simply a change of management after 8 years or radical, thoroughgoing change?

With the far right of centre ACT Party now likely to be able to leverage considerable power in any coalition with National, some ACT cabinet ministers and some key ACT policies may be expected to be part of the price National will need to pay in order to govern.

But John Key studiously avoided asking the New Zealand voters for a free market, smaller government sweeping mandate. National's policy platform, like Labour's, was a patchwork of ideas with no overarching vision of taking the country in a new direction, let alone declaring how fast & substantial that change should be. In times of deepening economic crisis, this should trouble the nation.

While We're Waiting... For the New Zealand Election Results...

While we're waiting for the New Zealand General Election results to start rolling in, let's remember in the immortal words of one Fred Dagg:

And spend a little time with Dog from Footrot Flats, accompanied by Dave Dobbyn & Herbs:

Memories...

New Zealand General Election Campaign Limps To A Close: Another McCain's Election?

The New Zealand General Election campaign limps to a close within the next 24 hours. No broad vision, no coherent set of policies has been provided by the two major parties, National and Labour, and with even less from most of the minor parties.

The major party leaders, Labour's Helen Clark and National's John Key, have quibbled over this and that, eking out a policy here and there, unable to find anything much of the other side's policy they might like. Unlike the US election just completed, neither leader seems to be able to find anything much about the other one to admire or respect. No shared vision of New Zealand or what it means to be a Kiwi, or not so much as either cared to share with the electorate.

The tendency in New Zealand politics over the past 25-30 years to mimic US presidential-style electioneering means that the current and would-be front bench leadership has been missing in action. Voters could be excused if tested on who these politicians were and what they had been saying during the campaign.

Even the pollsters seem to have given up, the latest poll having been released in mid October they seem to have departed for the beaches of Fiji.

The news media seem bored in having to post an occasional campaign story - the lowlights in reporting in the past week being Ms Clark tripping in a cafe at Riccarton Mall or Mr Key being heckled by a few opponents in Christchurch's Cathedral Square, par for the course for anyone who opens their mouth in the Square. This passes for political journalism when the pickings are slim.

As for policy positions, National has progressively moved to the centre, so close to Labour's policies it has become difficult for the observant voter to distinguish the two aside from the brand name. This is Hotelling's law at work. Economist Harold Hotelling observed that competitors or political opponents will produce products or policies that are similar to one another in order to attract the greatest number sales or votes by appealing to the median customer or voter.

Take Wellington's Oriental Bay beach, for example, with two ice cream sellers located at the start of the day at either end of the beach.

Over the course of the day, they will move their carts closer and closer to the middle of the beach to attract the most buyers (or voters). So, Helen and John, ice cream vendors, end up back-to-back in the centre of the beach dispensing their wares.

The best argument that it seems that can be made for voting for National in this election - they have a substantial lead in polls - is that they are Not-Labour. But their policies and leadership make them seem very much like just another ice cream seller.

Both parties missed the key message of the US election campaign and the "secret" of Barack Obama's success.

He articulated a vision of a United States that would take a new direction, that would abandon the failed, painful policies of the past 8 years under George W Bush.

Obama's is an optimistic vision - about how that country can be different, can rebuild its relationship with the rest of the world, and can take care of itself by rebuilding a sense of community beyond a mere aggregation of individuals. Whether you agree with it or not, it persuaded a majority of American voters it was worth taking a chance on.

The same cannot be said for National or Labour. Both parties have taken on the John McCain losing strategy: erratic, disorganized, whining, sniping, tear down the other guy, and lacking much of any vision. Both have failed to capture the interest and enthusiasm of younger citizen voters, a phenomenon that helped propel Obama that last step into the highest office for a person of colour in a cumulative transformation of US race relations over the last 150 years.

Instead, Kiwi voters are faced with another type of McCain's election - as in the frozen foods brand.

After the election is over and done with, voters may get a McCain's surprise: they may find yet another dead mouse among the frozen veggies (See Fair Go segment here for explanation).

"Ah, Labour/National, you've done it again".

Now get out and vote - sensibly!

Final Leaders Debate in New Zealand General Election - Big Yawn, Kiwis Get An Extra Hour's Shut-eye

The final leaders debate turned out to be a bit of a yawn. The video is here on Television New Zealand's website.

Both Labour's Helen Clark and National's John Key sought to ride on the coat tails of Barack Obama's ascendancy to the US Presidency.

But to paraphrase the late US Senator Lloyd Bentsen: "I know Barack Obama, and Ms Clark, Mr Key, you're no Barack Obama".

Neither has the vision, the intellect, or the power to draw in a new generation of citizens and from across broad socio-economic groups by challenging them to take their society in a new direction.

Instead, Key and Clark trolled through a range of policy issues, bogging down in the minutae, with little attempt to provide a broader vision that explained to voters how and where they intend to lead the country. At one stage the debate degenerated to the level of what misdemeanor transgressions of the law they may have committed in their youth.

By the way, note to Mr Key: It's not Barrack Obama, but Baaaa-rak Obama! Probably a good thing to get right before you arrive at the front door of the White House.

And a note to the journalist questioner, Tracy Watkins, purportedly the Dominion Post's political editor, who'd been speaking to Joe the taxi driver on her way to the debate and who based a health & education question on her cab conversation with Joe: that's lazy journalism. It is such a hackneyed, lazy way of conducting "research". We thought the lead-in "I was talking to a taxi driver..." was a phrase that had died a merciful death decades ago in New Zealand. Appears not, sadly.

For better quality journalism, next time talk to a Chicago cab driver for better questions - they constitute a United Nations of cabbies and most of them listen to public radio which means they are well-informed about world affairs. Plus, for the price of the fare, you get a high speed chase through the Loop, something that debate viewers would've paid gold for. Anything to provide a bit of an adrenalin rush.

TV3 Leaders Debate in New Zealand General Election

The Christchurch Press is calling the Labour and National Party leaders debate on TV3 on 3 November "an honourable draw" here.

TV3's Campbell Live video archive here provides the debate in its entirety - in parts - with a post-debate panel discussion.

Labour leader Helen Clark said afterwards she thought she'd rattled National leader John Key. For his part, Key said the debate was scrappy at times, but both leaders had a fair hearing and he wouldn't declare a winner.

Moderator John Campbell challenged both leaders to be specific in terms of policies that would turn around long run economic decline and bolster future economic development. Both leaders were confronted with their "fatalism", for focusing solely on "ambulances at the bottom of the cliff" such as emergency unemployment benefits as the global financial crisis bites.

As Campbell pointed out, both leaders tried to claim credit for the least popular piece of legislation in recent times, the Anti-Smacking Act which bars parents from smacking their children other than "inconsequential" smacking.

Campbell suggested to Clark that she is coming near to the end of her natural life as a prime minister but saved some heat for Key asserting his National front bench leadership was "as fresh as a seven-day-old snapper".

Clark struck her strongest blows against Key when she highlighted National's lack of connection to & support of the Pasifika community in South Auckland. Labour is hoping to turn out the Pacific Island vote in South Auckland on election day, a bedrock of Labour support when it turns out to vote.

Key landed his biggest blow when he talked of Labour's nanny state that was "storming through your front door" with new environmental regulations on lightbulbs and shower heads. (He should probably take a trip to Schwarzenegger California to get a good idea of his "nanny state" environmental regulation that is not just Democratic, but Republican. The reality is green is crossing ideological lines.)

On New Zealand - US relations, both leaders said they would work with either US presidential candidate, both who are "very talented". Clark commented on Obama being "the most gifted and charismatic" politician and Key noting "McCain is a good friend of New Zealand" but that Obama's election would truly be historic.

New Zealand Government Exchanges Letters with Lending Institutions over Distressed Mortgages as Election Looms in Background

The Minister of Finance, Dr Michael Cullen, says the Crown and New Zealand's largest mortgage lending banks have exchanged letters on the approach the banks will take in handling distressed mortgages.

Dr Cullen said the Labour Government places high value on home ownership for New Zealanders and on assisting to keep them in their own homes during periods of temporary financial distress.

To that end, the banks have assured the Crown that distressed mortgage loans will be evaluated on a case by case basis and where there is a reasonable expectation that mortgage-servicing could be resumed within a reasonable period, they will use their best endeavours to work with borrowers to avoid forced sales where appropriate.

Banks will restructure mortgage loans by capitalising interest or temporarily reducing servicing obligations in order to assist borrowers to deal with short term financial difficulties. Foreclosure will be a final resort, not a first option.

New Zealand Gains Currency Swap Facility with Federal Reserve as New Zealand Election Looms

Much under-reported by the New Zealand news media and certainly overlooked for its significance, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced on 29 October in a short press release that the US Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee had approved a US$15 billion (NZ$26 billion) temporary reciprocal currency swap facility.

The currency swap will permit the provision of US dollar liquidity to New Zealand markets up to $15 billion through to 30 April 2009.

The currency swap, though modest by international standards, is similar to those used in the past month or two to ensure liquidity in the European Union, Japan, and elsewhere, where the Fed has essentially adopted a de facto international lender of last resort function.

When combined with evidence of tightening liquidity in New Zealand and the mis-management of the introduction of the recent introduced deposit guarantee system, the currency swap facility is no doubt an important lifeline for the Reserve Bank in its liquidity management in the months ahead.

Evidence is mounting of emerging liquidity problems. Expectations are that New Zealand trading banks which raise loan funds from issuing short-term commercial paper in London, a market that has effectively dried up in the short run, are very likely to have problems raising funds in the months ahead.

Reserve Bank data shows that $100 million of funds have been drawn down from the Reserve Bank's mortgage-backed securities liquidity facility recently. And the major trading banks have been quick to sign up for the government's deposit guarantee system.

Managed funds outside the deposit guarantee system are now experiencing a flight of funds to guaranteed deposits in other institutions, causing AXA New Zealand to freeze three of its mortgage-backed funds with $225 million under management.

Problems with the coverage of the Australian deposit guarantee system has seen Australian managed funds freeze more than A$24 billion in order to remain solvent.

Within the next 24 hours, the New Zealand government is also expected to announce its plans for a guarantee system for wholesale deposits to shore up the liquidity concerns surrounding the inability of the trading banks to secure funds in the London market for their lending operations within New Zealand. This should, perhaps, have been a first step in any deposit guarantee system rather than the retail deposit guarantee, especially as there was no imminent threat of a depositer run on banks.

National's Emergency Worker Assistance $42 million Package in New Zealand Election Campaign

National leader John Key unveiled the party's emergency economic assistance policy for those who become unemployed as a result of the economic crisis.

For families eligible for tax credits under Working For Families, the in-work tax credit, valued at $60 per week, will continue for up to 16 weeks after a worker is laid off. Additionally, the accommodation supplement available to unemployed workers will be raised up to $100 per week to assist in making rent and mortgage payments.

The package is estimated by National to cost $42 million.

In addressing the distribution of benefits received by banks and the unemployed, Key reminded banks that the taxpayer was funding the deposit guarantee system and there was an expectation that banks would "be very careful about the manner in which they deal with customers who may, as a consequence of the global financial crisis, find it hard to meet their obligations."

As the election campaign heads into its final week, the economic policies of the two major parties are becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish from one another. This may pose a greater risk for National as it attempts to secure a vote sufficient to give it a clear majority to govern without relying on support from minor parties such as the Maori Party.

Overseas Votes Could Make The Difference in New Zealand General Election

"On current trends, about 50 percent more Kiwis overseas are likely to vote this year than in 2005," according to Ivan Moss, chief executive of the Kiwi Expats Association (Kea) network.

As of Wednesday, 56,152 overseas New Zealanders had enrolled to vote, and if patterns seen in previous elections are repeated, this will rise to around 60,000 by election day. This is, however, just a 10th of Kiwis living abroad.

If only 70 percent of those enrolled vote, that will make a record 42,000 overseas votes in this year's election, compared with 28,000 in 2005.

A recent paper by Kiwi Alan Gamlen, working on his PhD in political geography at Oxford University, shows that relatively small numbers of overseas votes have changed previous elections.

As is well-known by even the casual student of NZ history, the overseas vote of soldiers still abroad after World War I defeated the 1919 prohibition referendum. In 1943, the overseas vote, again largely military, tipped the balance and ensured the re-election of the Fraser-led Labour Government.

More recently, Gamlen suggests that in 1993 overseas votes appeared to be "the feather that tipped the final result in National's favour" in the decisive Waitaki electorate which resulted in a National party majority of one in parliament.

"Because overseas voting patterns tend to be different, Kiwis overseas could make a real difference in this year's election," said Mr Moss.

Labour Steals A March Over National on Emergency Unemployment Policy in Election Campaign

Stealing a march on National which is expected to announce its policy to respond to the effects of the global economic crisis, Labour's leader Helen Clark released details of her party's emergency unemployment benefit today.

The normal waiting period for unemployment benefits will be reduced to 1-2 weeks and means-testing will not be applied to the first 13 weeks of benefit payment. Only those laid off or made redundant would be eligible.

Labour estimates the cost of the transitional assistance package at $50 million, with the funding coming from within existing government revenues.