National Secures New Zealand Government Coalition Agreement

The National party has secured agreements with the Maori Party, ACT, and United Future to lead a 70 seat majority in New Zealand's 122 seat Parliament. The coalition is limited to supply & support arrangements from the minor parties in return for ministerial posts outside Cabinet and National support or acquiescence on several key policies of the minor parties.

The Maori party will provide supply and support to National in return for two ministerial posts outside Cabinet for Maori Party co-leaders, Dr Pita Sharples and Turiana Turia. Dr Sharples will become Minister of Maori Affairs with associate posts of Education and Corrections while Ms Turia will hold the posts of Minister for the Community and Voluntary Sector, Associate Health Minister and Associate Social Development Minister. Both new ministers will have spending as well as policy responsibilities.

Dr Sharples said the Maori Party had been formed on the basis of getting into government and making a difference.

"It won't be all together terribly easy some days, but it is the opportunity that we sought," Dr Sharples said.

To secure agreement with the Maori Party, National has scrapped its plan to abolish Maori electorate seats without a majority of Maori voters approving of the measure. In return, the Maori Party is dropping its policy to seek entrenchment of Maori seats. A group will be formed to explore constitutional issues including Maori representation. National has also offered to review the controversial Foreshore and Seabed Act to determine how well it is working and whether it might be modified to better meet the goals of multiple interests.

It is only three years since the former National party leader, and former Governor of the Reserve Bank, Don Brash proposed abolishing the Maori seats and called for an end to government funding targetted at Maori as favouritism or undesirable affirmative action.

National's incoming Prime Minister, John Key, has thus reversed the more rightward shift of his party from three years ago on race relations but there will be tensions within the party because of this apparent U-turn as well as in the wider electorate, especially among the more conservative and racist elements of New Zealand society.

Building bridges, however, may be more effective in achieving National's broader policy goals with less conflict or friction with interest groups that might otherwise be expected to oppose National's main policies. This, however, is likely to create some internal pressures on the Maori party in particular.

National's other agreements with ACT and United Future are more straightforward. ACT leader Rodney Hide will hold ministerial roles outside Cabinet for Local Government and Regulatory Reform as well as the job of associate Minister of Commerce. ACT's deputy leader Heather Roy will become Minister of Consumer Affairs and associate Minister of Defence and Education.

In return, National will support legislation for ACT's three strikes sentencing policy for violent offenders - a policy that attempts to ape some of the worst of US criminal politics of recent times - to the select committee stage, so does not guarantee support on final legislation.

Further concessions to ACT include a review of government spending, presumably excluding the substantial increase in correctional facilities required for a three strikes policy (memo to Mr Hide: check US incarceration rates and that country's world ranking for imprisoning its people, mainly the poor and of colour). National has also agreed to establish a taskforce on trans-Tasman flight - of labour, not capital - to Australia. It has also agreed to delay introduction of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) but Mr Key reiterated that an amended scheme will proceed by the end of 2009.

The job-retention scheme for Peter Dunne of United Future has been locked into place: three more years as Minister of Revenue & will add Associate Minister of Health to his name tag. National has agreed to retain Dunne's Family Commission and will create a Big Game Hunting Council as part of a national wild game management strategy to get Dunne's one vote.

Labour Party's Stance on Entrenching Maori Seats

Helen Clark, Labour Party leader, has said "I don't have any particular difficulty with entrenching those" Maori seats that are created on the basis of the numbers of voters registered on the Maori electoral rolls.

She clarified that she meant entrenching the seats through the electoral option rather than entrenching a set number of seats.

Entrenching the Maori seats means that a 75 percent majority of parliament would be required to abolish the seats.

The Maori Party, likely to play a pivotal role in any coalition or support agreement with a major party post-election, has made it a condition of support for a major party to form a government that the Maori seats be entrenched.

The political problem is less with Labour and more with National since National has declared it will seek to abolish the Maori seats by 2014, although National leader John Key has said during the election campaign that this position is "not the bottom line" on the issue.

Labour Narrows the Gap - Colmar Brunton Poll on New Zealand General Election

The latest TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll suggests Labour is closing the gap on National with less than a fortnight to go till the General Election in New Zealand.

National dropped 3 percent to 47 percent support in the latest poll while Labour dropped 1 to 35 percent - a gap of 12 percent.

But the real gap closer is the surge in support for the Greens - up 3 to 8 percent (a level mirrored in other recent polls) and the Maori Party, up 1 to 3 percent but the latter has a strong chance of securing most of the 7 Maori electorate seats. The Colmar-Brunton polls assumes the Maori Party will take four of those seats. ACT support was unchanged on 2 percent, while NZ First moved up 1 to 3 percent.

Based on these poll results, and United Future's declaration yesterday that it will support National to form a government after the election, National could govern with 59 seats + 3 ACT + 1 United Future in a 122 seat Parliament.

A Labour-led coalition of 44 seats + 10 Greens + 1 Progressive = 55, would leave Labour needing the 4 or more Maori Party seats and possibly 1 NZ First seat (Winston Peters) but still short of a majority.

But it would take only a swing of 2-3 percent towards Labour and its support parties for a coalition to be possible.

An election on a knife edge, indeed. And one in which overseas Kiwi votes might count more than ever in affecting the result. Soooooooooooo - GET OUT THE VOTE, whoever you decide to vote for!

TV3 Poll Shows New Zealand Election Tightening Up

The latest TV3 opinion poll of voter preferences in the New Zealand General Election shows the race tightening up, thanks to the MMP voting system, on who will be able to govern after 8 November.

While Labour's support falls to 37.4 percent with National's remaining unchanged at 45.1 percent, the Greens have surged to 8.8 percent in the poll likely reflecting disaffected center-left voters transferring their party vote from Labour to the Greens.

This transfer of support has not been lost on Labour leader Helen Clark who is exhorting: "My message to Labour supporters is if you want a Labour-led government please vote Labour and give us the strength to negotiate later."

The poll results suggest that the new parliament will have an overhang of 123 seats: 57 for National and 47 for Labour, insufficient for either party to command a majority to govern alone.

National could likely cobble together a coalition of support with ACT (2) and United Future (1), giving a total of 60, but still not enough to govern.

National has ruled out an alliance with Winston Peters' NZ First party, which might only provide 1 additional seat. NZ First support grew to 3.5 percent in the latest poll but not enough to cross the 5 percent threshold for the party vote to ensure list representation in parliament.

Labour, on the other hand, has more "friends", having been careful at least to keep the flap open on the big tent. The Greens have announced this week (see earlier post) that their objectives are more closely aligned to Labour's policies.

The Maori Party co-leader Dr Pita Sharples, responding to Maori voter preferences for a coalition agreement with Labour rather than National, is also leaning in Labour's direction while his co-leader Turiana Turia is keeping the door open to National.

Turia has even been ready to forgive and forget within a day or so the racist comments of National's Immigration spokesman, Lockwood Smith, about Asian and Pasifika workers. Quite what she expects to achieve in terms of significant policy advances for Maori with a National-led government is at this stage largely left unexplained by Ms Turia.

Labour, then, could cobble together a coalition: Labour (47), Progressives (1), Greens (11), totalling 59 seats. Again, insufficient to command a majority in parliament and therefore the power to govern.

Thus, the Maori Party with a likely 6 to 7 seats will hold the balance of power, being the king - or queen - maker in the new parliament, determining who sits on the Treasury benches.

For National, leader John Key is going to have to work hard on damage-control as some of his dinosaur shadow cabinet members make racist comments or insist on drawing attention to road toll schemes that would cost the average citizen as much per week as the National tax cut they would receive.

In the remaining time before the election, Key will also have to start showing a more conciliatory and bridge-building stance towards Maori, something that will be a high wire act - perhaps beyond his abilities or inclination - as steps in this direction will likely alienate many of his core National voters.

For the Maori Party leadership the stakes are high. If they follow their voter support, they will gather under Labour's big tent where they could count on the Greens as allies to exert significant pressure on Labour to improve their performance on Maori issues.

Or Maori Party leadership can get out in front of their base support and align with National. This bears grave risks: National is likely to disappoint on Maori issues and the Maori Party faces a rout in three years time when disaffected voters in the Maori electorates could very well toss out Maori Party MPs in favour of Labour ones, returning to a longer term alliance of Maori electoral support for Labour and setting back the Maori Party cause.

Maori Party Leadership Division As General Election Heats Up?

Maori Party co-leader Dr. Pita Sharples appears to be getting the message loud and clear from the Maori electorate that voters prefer a post-election agreement with Labour rather than National.

"We would prefer in the first instance that Labour got the higher share of the vote, because that's what our people want," Dr Sharples told The Press in Christchurch.

His co-leader Turiana Turia expressed surprise at Dr Sharples comment, continuing to take the line that the Maori Party remains interested in talking to all political parties about post-election arrangements.

Polls indicate that the Maori Party is likely to win 6 or 7 of the 7 Maori seats.

Maori Party Seeks Entrenched Maori Seats, Complicates Post - General Election Deal with National

The Maori Party has released its Treaty of Waitangi policy which includes a policy to entrench in law the Maori seats in parliament. This would mean a 75 per cent majority vote in parliament would be required to repeal the seats. The current law permits a repeal by simple majority.

The party is also opposed to any repeal without Maori consent through either a referendum or constitutional review.

Co-leader Tariana Turia has made it clear that support for a member's bill entrenching the seats would be a requirement of any agreement with a major party seeking support from the Maori Party in any post-election arrangement to form a government or seek supply & support.

This requirement makes even more difficult any post-election agreement between National, expected to gain the most seats in the new parliament though short of a working majority, and the Maori Party. National has declared its intent to abolish the Maori Seats by 2014; however, National leader John Key has said his party's Maori seat policy is not a bottom line.

The Maori Party's policy would seek to extend Maori representation to different levels of government. At the local level, separate Maori representation would occur on local government councils. At the national level, Maori representation would be created on the boards of state-owned enterprises, crown companies, crown entities, crown research institutes and district health boards.

Turia Reiterates Maori Party Happy to Deal with National

Turiana Turia, co-leader of the Maori Party, has re-iterated that her party is happy to work with the National Party to form a coalition government following the General Election in New Zealand on 8 November.

She made the comment following opinion poll results in Maori electorates that reinforced earlier polling that Maori voters are pressing the Maori Party to strike a deal with Labour rather than National after the election should either of the major parties fail to gain a majority in parliament.

Marae Digipolls surveys show the Maori Party holding on to its 4 Maori seats, having a good shot at winning the other three seats from Labour, and taking more of the party vote than Labour among Maori voters, a significant loss for Labour.

The Maori Party risks winning some short term tactical gains in a deal with National that could backfire among the Maori electorate if during the next government's term of office little is done to achieve Maori goals. A 70 plus year National history of lacklustre and negative policy towards Maori is playing on the minds of the Maori electorate that realizes, despite some significant setbacks such as the Foreshore and Seabed legislation in the last few years with Labour governments, the greatest gains have occurred for Maori under Labour administrations.

Striking a pact with the current National Party that has announced policies of rapidly winding-up Treaty of Waitangi settlement claims and abolishing the Maori parliamentary seats by 2014 is likely to appear to many Maori voters to be striking a deal with the devil.

The risk for the Maori Party is that it might have some short term three year gains but alienate itself from the Maori electorate and watch its electoral support whither away allowing other parties to reclaim Maori support.

Maori Party Claims National Leader Key Promised Not to Abolish Maori Seats

Dr Pita Sharples, Maori Party co-leader, says that National Party leader, John Key, gave assurances to the Maori Party in a meeting between the parties that National would not abolish the Maori electorate seats without Maori agreement. Harry Walker, Sharples' chief of staff, recalls Mr Key saying that National would put the issue on the back burner.

Mr Key & his deputy leader, Bill English, have denied making such an assurance and that no agreements will be made with other parties before the election. National's declared policy on the seats is that the seats would be abolished around 2014 because all outstanding Treaty of Waitangi claims should be settled by then.

Labour leader & PM Helen Clark has weighed in to the controversy saying she believed Sharples' claim: "I believe Pita Sharples. I have not always agreed with him as you know but I believe he is an honest man".

By making public the alleged assurance, the Maori Party may be trying to manoeuvre National into a corner on the Maori seats while trying to appease supporters in the Maori electorates that have been telling the Maori Party to seek a post-election coalition agreement with Labour rather than National because of National's policy to abolish the seats.

Maori Party Policy to Introduce Development Bank

The Maori Party unveiled its Family Issues and Economic policies at Te Aranga Marae in Hastings in the Hawkes Bay on Tuesday afternoon.

On tax policy, the party would eliminate income tax on the first $25,000 of income and reduce the business tax on small businesses with net income of less than $100,000 from 32 percent to 25 percent.

A community development bank would also be established to finance whanau and family business to promote economic development. The bank would be funded by re-channeling resources currently flowing through the Ministry of Economic Development to Maori.

ACT Can Work With Maori Party

In remarks after his opening campaign speech in Auckland on 12 October, ACT leader Rodney Hide said ACT could work with the Maori Party should a coalition government be necessary in order for the National Party to govern after the 8 November General Election.

The Maori Party - 2008 New Zealand General Election

The Maori Party is likely to play a major role in the process to form a new government after the November 8 General Election, either as a coalition partner for National or Labour, or in some type of support role to enable one of the major parties to govern.

The Maori Party holds 4 of the 7 Maori electorate seats and hopes to win them all.

Maori seats, of which there were 4 originally, were established by New Zealand's parliament in 1867.

Latest polls show Maori voters are placing pressure on the Maori Party to forge a post-election deal with Labour rather than National.

The latest TVNZ Marae programme DigiPolls in Te Tai Tokerau (Northland region) and Tamaki Makaurau (Auckland region) Maori seats show there is about 70 per cent support for the Maori Party doing a post-election deal with Labour. Poll results here.

But 62 percent of voters in the two electorates opposed a post-election deal with National.

This underscores the historical deep-seated mistrust of National among the Maori electorate. This was only deepened when the former National leader Don Brash's Orewa speech in 2004 criticised what he called the "Treaty of Waitangi Grievance Industry" and called for an end to affirmative action policies for Maori. Furthermore, National has advocated abolition of the Maori seats so Maori electors are justifiably suspicious.

But given the importance of the second vote cast under the MMP electoral system, Labour has cause to be concerned about the trend in party voting in the two Maori electorates surveyed.

In Te Tai Tokerau, the Maori Party stands to pick up 45 percent of the party vote to Labour's 35 percent, while in Tamaki Makaurau the Maori Party is running at just over 41 percent of the party vote to Labour's 37.5 percent.

Labour forged a strong and long lasting relationship with the Ratana movement in 1935 that ensured Maori support for Labour for the next sixty years in Maori seats.

In 1996, however, the New Zealand First party, though not a Maori political party but with a strong Maori wing, won all four Maori seats from Labour.

While Labour won all the seats back three years later, a deep rift with Maoridom was created when Labour pushed through the Foreshore and Seabed Act in 2004 that overruled the Court of Appeal's decision in Attorney-General v Ngati Apa (2003) that Maori were entitled to seek customary title over parts of New Zealand's foreshore and seabed in the Maori Land Court. The Act effectively extinguished any Maori customary title over the foreshore and seabed.

Tariana Turia then a junior minister in the Labour government voted against the bill and resigned from the party, forming the Maori Party with her allies. She is currently a co-leader with Dr Pita Sharples.

Maori Party co-leader, Dr Pita Sharples, interviewed on NZOneTonight in September 2008 about the principles and policies important to the Maori Party and its supporters:

Gordon Campbell of Scoop interviews Hone Harawira, Maori Party MP, on the Maori Party's election strategy here.

The Maori Party's website is www.maoriparty.com

Political Poll Stunner

Morgan Poll, full results here

The latest New Zealand Morgan Poll of potential voters shows Labour (37.5 percent) closing the gap on National (40.5 percent) to within 3 percent compared to a gap of 11 percent a fortnight ago.

The results appear to contradict other recent polls in the last fortnight that suggest National leads by 16-19 percent. Other poll results will be needed in order to determine whether the gap has really narrowed.

In earlier polling in September, greatest support for National in the three main centres was in Auckland (47.5 percent), followed closely by Christchurch (46) and then Wellington (43). Labour drew greatest urban support in Christchurch (38.5) , followed by Wellington (36.5) , with Auckland (32.5), by far the largest urban centre, trailing far behind.

In terms of support for minor parties, crucial to either of the main parties prospects for forming a government after the General Election, the Morgan poll has the Green Party at 9 percent, up 2.5 percent; New Zealand First down one on 4 percent; ACT up 2 to 3.5 pecent; the Maori Party at 2 percent; and United Future at 1 percent.

On these poll results, Labour might have the best prospect for forming a government after the election. With 48 seats, Labour might be able to broker a deal with the Greens' 11 seats and Maori Party's 6 seats in a 123 seat parliament. Or it could rely on support from the Progressives and United Future.

To form a government National would need, at a mininum, support of the ACT party and the Maori party.

Pollster Gary Morgan, in unusual editorial comment for a pollster unsupported by polling data, maintains that "there are increasing doubts about National Party leader John Key’s readiness for the highest office in the land", not only in terms of Key's failure to make complete personal finance disclosures but also his ability to handle the financial crisis besetting New Zealand and the world. Key also hurt his chances, according to Morgan, because of his refusal in collaboration with PM Helen Clark not to participate in a televised leaders debate. Full commentary here.

PM and Labour Leader, Helen Clark opens Labour's election campaign in Auckland on Sunday.

National Maintains Wide Margin Over Labour in Election Race

With just under 5 weeks till the General Election on Saturday, 8 November, the National Party continues to lead Labour, the governing party, by 19 points.

TV One's latest Colmar-Brunton poll shows National support at 52 percent, with Labour support easing off 1 percent to 33 percent.

Among the minor parties, only the Greens garner sufficient support, gaining 2 points to reach 7 percent, to cross the 5 percent party list threshold to give them representation in the new parliament without having to win electorate seats.

The Maori party posted a small gain from 1.8 to 2.5 percent but their support in Maori electorates is likely to ensure re-election in a number of seats they already hold.

In the past week or so, Maori Party MPs have been making public statements that suggest the Maori Party will consider a coalition arrangement with National, provided the Maori Party is represented within the Cabinet.