National Wins Big in New Zealand General Election

National, as expected, pulled off a win in yesterday's general election in New Zealand. What was not fully anticipated was the huge swing under an MMP voting system to National and minor party ACT.

Seat tally at end of election night, subject to the possibility National might lose one seat to the Greens when special votes are counted:

National Party............................................59
Labour Party..............................................43
ACT............................................................5
Maori Party.................................................5
Green Party................................................8
United Future..............................................1
Progressive.................................................1

After allowing for the loss of a further seat to the Greens, National could govern with ACT and United support. National, ACT and United would have 64 MPs - two votes over the 62 majority required.

National leader John Key will face a choice between trying to govern with a slim 2 vote majority or to broaden his margin by trying to forge a working relationship with the Maori Party which won 5 seats. This is likely to be problematic given the substantial policy differences between the two parties on Maori issues. How much political expediency may be exercised remains to be seen.

Labour leader Helen Clark announced in her concession speech that she is also resigning as leader of the party. Meantime, Winston Peters, leader of New Zealand First, will be looking for a new job as he lost his electorate seat and the party failed to gain sufficient support to win any list seats.

While this was a landslide in terms of MMP voting, the question remains as to what the result actually means the New Zealand electorate wants: simply a change of management after 8 years or radical, thoroughgoing change?

With the far right of centre ACT Party now likely to be able to leverage considerable power in any coalition with National, some ACT cabinet ministers and some key ACT policies may be expected to be part of the price National will need to pay in order to govern.

But John Key studiously avoided asking the New Zealand voters for a free market, smaller government sweeping mandate. National's policy platform, like Labour's, was a patchwork of ideas with no overarching vision of taking the country in a new direction, let alone declaring how fast & substantial that change should be. In times of deepening economic crisis, this should trouble the nation.