Colmar Brunton New Zealand Election Poll – 12 October 2008

TV One's latest Colmar-Brunton poll released on 12 October shows National continuing to lead Labour by a wide margin of 18 points in the New Zealand General Election campaign.

National’s support slipped a percent to 51 percent while Labour remained unchanged at 33 percent.

Among the minor parties, the Greens rose a percent to 8 percent, remaining the only party to cross the 5 percent party list threshold.

The Maori party posted a further small gain, rising to 2.8 percent but their support in Maori electorates also continues to strengthen. NZ First gained 0.6 to garner 2.6 percent support.

The poll was taken between 4 and 9 October before the main parties campaigns opened on October 12. The margin of error is 3.5 percent.

Based on these numbers, the projections of the seats to be held by each party in the new parliament are:

National.............63

Labour...............41

Green................10

NZ First...............0

Maori..................6

United Future.......1

ACT....................2

Progressive..........1

Total................124

Based on projections that the Maori Party wins 6 Maori seats, ACT, United Future, and Progressives win one each.

Possible coalition options:

National: 63/124 - a majority possible

Labour: 41 plus Greens + Maori Party + Progressive + United Future (18) = 59/124, majority not possible.