The latest TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll suggests Labour is closing the gap on National with less than a fortnight to go till the General Election in New Zealand.
National dropped 3 percent to 47 percent support in the latest poll while Labour dropped 1 to 35 percent - a gap of 12 percent.
But the real gap closer is the surge in support for the Greens - up 3 to 8 percent (a level mirrored in other recent polls) and the Maori Party, up 1 to 3 percent but the latter has a strong chance of securing most of the 7 Maori electorate seats. The Colmar-Brunton polls assumes the Maori Party will take four of those seats. ACT support was unchanged on 2 percent, while NZ First moved up 1 to 3 percent.
Based on these poll results, and United Future's declaration yesterday that it will support National to form a government after the election, National could govern with 59 seats + 3 ACT + 1 United Future in a 122 seat Parliament.
A Labour-led coalition of 44 seats + 10 Greens + 1 Progressive = 55, would leave Labour needing the 4 or more Maori Party seats and possibly 1 NZ First seat (Winston Peters) but still short of a majority.
But it would take only a swing of 2-3 percent towards Labour and its support parties for a coalition to be possible.
An election on a knife edge, indeed. And one in which overseas Kiwi votes might count more than ever in affecting the result. Soooooooooooo - GET OUT THE VOTE, whoever you decide to vote for!
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